Yes ↓ -4% 6/9/2026, 18:02:12
Small bearish edge on Yes at current price with decent liquidity and tight spread, but no strong conviction.
Unified market view
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 63%
Current price 45¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Small bearish edge on Yes at current price with decent liquidity and tight spread, but no strong conviction.
Watch triggers
- Yes at 0.45 with edge negative
- Orderbook favors No
- 1w trend down
Why not now
Small bearish edge on Yes at current price with decent liquidity and tight spread, but no strong conviction.
Revisit when
Yes at 0.45 with edge negative · Orderbook favors No · 1w trend down
Execution guard
Price 45¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $96,800. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:11:00
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
47¢Volume (24h) ?
$3,282Liquidity ?
$104,271Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-2.2%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
46¢ 1,841.72
45¢ 1,435.67
44¢ 3,603.88
43¢ 2,934.65
42¢ 2,083.65
Asks
47¢ 1,091.16
48¢ 5,394.98
49¢ 2,089
50¢ 1,328
51¢ 2,536.19
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/13/2026, 12:49:04 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:51:04 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:53:05 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:55:16 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:57:04 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:59:05 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:01:03 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:03:04 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:05:04 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:07:03 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:09:21 46.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:10:04 46.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.