5/31/2026, 06:01:22 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
19¢
No trades near 0.81 with heavy bid depth and Yes trending down over the week; selling Yes/leaning No fits the current pricing.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price fell 0.30 over 7d · No side has deeper top-of-book liquidity · No clear official deal signal
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
62%
Market implies a modest chance, but the long-standing price action and strong No-side orderbook dominance suggest Yes is still overvalued; absent concrete diplomatic breakthroughs, downside remains favored.
5/31/2026, 00:01:51 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
19¢
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the weak trend and lack of catalyst; current 19c is still above my estimate.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 7d price down sharply · 1d trend remains negative · No confirmed qualifying agreement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
71%
Price implies a low-probability peace deal, but the one-week collapse and continued drift lower suggest the market still overestimates near-term deal odds. No evidence of imminent definitive agreement.
5/30/2026, 06:01:06 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
22¢
The market is already near the lower end and orderbook is balanced enough that the negative trend does not create a strong sell edge. Lack of confirmed negotiation progress keeps the Yes case weak,...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price down to 0.225 · No official deal confirmation · Tight 0.01 spread
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
74%
Price at 0.22 still implies a small chance, but recent 1d/1w drift is down and the market appears to price a low-probability diplomatic breakthrough. No clear catalyst suggests a qualifying permanent deal by deadline.
5/29/2026, 12:01:29 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
26¢
Clear No bias in price and order book, but the spread is tight and the event is binary with limited catalyst visibility. Better to wait for new diplomatic signals than chase the current level.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price at 0.26 · 1w downtrend persists · No-side order book heavier
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
68%
Price has drifted down, but the market still implies a low-probability diplomatic breakthrough. No concrete confirmation of a permanent deal is evident, so Yes remains below fair value.
5/29/2026, 06:00:58 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
29¢
Pricing is efficient with tight spread and balanced depth; slight bearish lean is too small to justify a trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No confirmed negotiations or signing · Yes price drifted down 2 pts in 24h · Tight 1-cent spread reduces edge
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
Market implies about 29% Yes; I գնահատize slightly lower due to no visible catalyst, recent 1w drift down, and the unusually high bar for a permanent deal by deadline.
