Yes ↓ -6% 5/31/2026, 06:01:22
No trades near 0.81 with heavy bid depth and Yes trending down over the week; selling Yes/leaning No fits the current pricing.
Unified market view
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -6%
Confidence 62%
Current price 19¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No trades near 0.81 with heavy bid depth and Yes trending down over the week; selling Yes/leaning No fits the current pricing.
Watch triggers
- Yes price fell 0.30 over 7d
- No side has deeper top-of-book liquidity
- No clear official deal signal
Why not now
No trades near 0.81 with heavy bid depth and Yes trending down over the week; selling Yes/leaning No fits the current pricing.
Revisit when
Yes price fell 0.30 over 7d · No side has deeper top-of-book liquidity · No clear official deal signal
Execution guard
Price 19¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $166,975. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:37:25
Signal
BuyBest ask ?
20¢Volume (24h) ?
$168,336Liquidity ?
$196,579Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
49.4%Momentum ?
5.4%Volatility ?
0.7%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
19¢ 24,959.47
18¢ 15,430.89
17¢ 72,364.63
16¢ 143,634.76
15¢ 4,021.88
Asks
20¢ 39,900.56
21¢ 19,712.9
22¢ 24,485.12
23¢ 3,217.66
24¢ 901.34
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:15:07 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:06 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:04 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:05 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:04 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:07 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 19.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:36:03 19.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 5/31/2026, 00:01:51
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the weak trend and lack of catalyst; current 19c is still above my estimate.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/30/2026, 06:01:06
The market is already near the lower end and orderbook is balanced enough that the negative trend does not create a strong sell edge. Lack of confirmed negotiation progress keeps the Yes case weak,...
Yes ↓ -5% 5/29/2026, 12:01:29
Clear No bias in price and order book, but the spread is tight and the event is binary with limited catalyst visibility. Better to wait for new diplomatic signals than chase the current level.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/29/2026, 06:00:58
Pricing is efficient with tight spread and balanced depth; slight bearish lean is too small to justify a trade.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 5/31/2026, 08:42:55
$9,430 82¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 00:10:59
$6,560 82¢