5/31/2026, 06:01:11 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
39¢
The market is fairly efficient here: yes is cheap but not obviously mispriced, and the path to a qualifying permanent deal remains highly uncertain.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.39 · 1d down 9 pts · 1w down 25 pts
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
74%
Price around 0.39 already reflects a meaningful chance of détente; recent 1d/1w drift down and no catalyst for a permanent, official peace deal by July 2026.
5/30/2026, 18:02:23 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
42¢
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus weak momentum and bid/ask pressure; better odds favor No unless a concrete diplomatic breakthrough appears.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes down 13 pts in 1d · Yes down 25 pts in 1w · Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
74%
Price around 0.42 still implies a non-trivial peace-deal chance, but recent 1d/1w trend is sharply down and orderbook favors No. No clear catalyst suggests upside re-rating soon.
5/29/2026, 06:01:27 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
59¢
The Yes price looks a bit rich versus current evidence; bearish orderbook balance and lack of concrete agreement signal favor fading the current price.
Triggers Yes ask near 0.60 · Orderbook leans No · 24h price down 2%
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
67%
Price implies a meaningful chance of a permanent deal, but orderbook favors No, recent 24h move is down, and there is no clear catalyst or public progress suggesting imminent formal agreement.
5/29/2026, 00:01:19 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
60¢
The spread is tight and liquidity is decent, but there is no clear catalyst for a durable agreement. Recent momentum is positive, yet the market already prices substantial success, leaving only a s...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes trades near 0.60-0.61 · No ask remains 0.40 · No definitive peace-deal evidence
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
62%
Price around 0.60 implies a meaningful chance already. Headlines/market path show modest upward drift short-term, but the bar for a permanent US-Iran peace deal by Jul 31, 2026 remains very high and binary resolution risk is low. I estimate fair value slightly below market due to limited concrete evidence of a qualifying permanent agreement.
5/28/2026, 12:01:53 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
58¢
Slight bearish edge on Yes at the current price; momentum and orderbook lean against a deal being priced in too aggressively.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price down 6c · No bid depth stronger · Yes ask side heavier
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
63%
Price at 0.58 looks slightly rich versus the current trend. Recent 1d and 1h moves are downward, while orderbook depth favors No, suggesting modest downside unless a concrete breakthrough emerges.
