Yes ↓ -5% 5/31/2026, 06:01:11
The market is fairly efficient here: yes is cheap but not obviously mispriced, and the path to a qualifying permanent deal remains highly uncertain.
Unified market view
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -5%
Confidence 74%
Current price 39¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market is fairly efficient here: yes is cheap but not obviously mispriced, and the path to a qualifying permanent deal remains highly uncertain.
Watch triggers
- Yes at 0.39
- 1d down 9 pts
- 1w down 25 pts
Why not now
The market is fairly efficient here: yes is cheap but not obviously mispriced, and the path to a qualifying permanent deal remains highly uncertain.
Revisit when
Yes at 0.39 · 1d down 9 pts · 1w down 25 pts
Execution guard
Price 39¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $174,705. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:36:39
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
42¢Volume (24h) ?
$131,388Liquidity ?
$248,516Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-4.2%Momentum ?
-4.6%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
41¢ 2,697.49
40¢ 16,674.2
39¢ 17,042.99
38¢ 55,215.76
37¢ 5,888
Asks
42¢ 2,941.89
43¢ 19,213.86
44¢ 22,930.69
45¢ 32,412.3
46¢ 28,618.31
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:15:05 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:06 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:04 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:05 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:07 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 41.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:36:03 41.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -6% 5/30/2026, 18:02:23
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus weak momentum and bid/ask pressure; better odds favor No unless a concrete diplomatic breakthrough appears.
Yes ↓ -8% 5/29/2026, 06:01:27
The Yes price looks a bit rich versus current evidence; bearish orderbook balance and lack of concrete agreement signal favor fading the current price.
Yes ↓ -4% 5/29/2026, 00:01:19
The spread is tight and liquidity is decent, but there is no clear catalyst for a durable agreement. Recent momentum is positive, yet the market already prices substantial success, leaving only a s...
Yes ↓ -3% 5/28/2026, 12:01:53
Slight bearish edge on Yes at the current price; momentum and orderbook lean against a deal being priced in too aggressively.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 5/31/2026, 06:58:48
$8,300 41.75¢