6/13/2026, 06:01:45 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
3.1¢
No clear edge at the current price; liquidity is good but the market is already pricing Yes near the floor, so upside from buying is limited without a strong catalyst.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes near 3% · No closure evidence · Price trend down
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
90%
Market price already implies a very low yes probability (~3.1%). No fresh evidence of an imminent broad Israeli airspace closure is provided, and recent price action is a steady drift lower rather than a clear mispricing.
6/13/2026, 00:01:38 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
3.6¢
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the lack of closure catalysts before expiry; bearish drift supports fading the current price.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No closure announcements · Downward 1d/1w price trend · Low Yes ask depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
0% Confidence
64%
Market prices imply a small chance, but there is no sign of an imminent broad Israeli airspace closure. Recent price drift is down and the ask is thin, suggesting limited upside for Yes.
6/12/2026, 18:01:51 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
4¢
The Yes side has a small bearish edge, but liquidity is decent and price is already very low; without a clear catalyst for a closure, the expected value is limited.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes near 4% · Recent price drift down · No side dominates book
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
67%
Yes trades near 4.0% with modest book support, but recent drift and dominant No pricing suggest the market is still too optimistic about a broad Israeli airspace closure by June 15.
6/12/2026, 06:01:44 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
4¢
Price is already extremely low and the market shows no clear catalyst for a broad Israeli airspace closure before expiry. Edge is small and liquidity is sufficient, so no strong entry at current le...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 4-5% · Recent price drift lower · No closure catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
64%
Yes is priced near 4-5%, but recent drift is down and order book is balanced with no evidence of imminent broad closure; a major airspace shutdown by June 15 still looks unlikely.
6/9/2026, 00:00:25 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
13¢
The market is efficient in a tight spread, but there is no clear catalyst for a major Israeli airspace closure before June 15; price already reflects a low Yes probability.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No official closure reported · Strict resolution threshold · No immediate escalation signal
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
74%
Price is 13% with strong book support for No, but the event definition is strict and current info shows no fresh escalation or official closure signal; slight downside to Yes from current price.
