Yes → 0% 6/13/2026, 06:01:45
No clear edge at the current price; liquidity is good but the market is already pricing Yes near the floor, so upside from buying is limited without a strong catalyst.
Unified market view
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes → 0%
Confidence 90%
Current price 3.1¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge at the current price; liquidity is good but the market is already pricing Yes near the floor, so upside from buying is limited without a strong catalyst.
Watch triggers
- Yes near 3%
- No closure evidence
- Price trend down
Why not now
No clear edge at the current price; liquidity is good but the market is already pricing Yes near the floor, so upside from buying is limited without a strong catalyst.
Revisit when
Yes near 3% · No closure evidence · Price trend down
Execution guard
Price 3.1¢ · spread 0.2 pts · liquidity $174,995. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:07:55
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
2¢Volume (24h) ?
$97,291Liquidity ?
$163,222Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.2¢Depth imbalance ?
10.8%Momentum ?
-37.7%Volatility ?
2.3%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
1.8¢ 419.09
1.6¢ 200
1.5¢ 2,010
1.2¢ 1,505
1.1¢ 541
Asks
2¢ 38.39
2.1¢ 492.33
2.2¢ 722.1
2.3¢ 1,066.73
2.4¢ 1,440.41
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/13/2026, 12:46:17 1.85¢
6/13/2026, 12:48:10 1.85¢
6/13/2026, 12:50:07 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 12:52:04 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 12:54:04 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 12:56:05 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 12:58:04 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 13:00:06 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 13:02:06 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 13:04:05 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 13:06:04 1.9¢
6/13/2026, 13:07:04 1.9¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ 0% 6/13/2026, 00:01:38
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the lack of closure catalysts before expiry; bearish drift supports fading the current price.
Yes ↓ -1% 6/12/2026, 18:01:51
The Yes side has a small bearish edge, but liquidity is decent and price is already very low; without a clear catalyst for a closure, the expected value is limited.
Yes ↓ -1% 6/12/2026, 06:01:44
Price is already extremely low and the market shows no clear catalyst for a broad Israeli airspace closure before expiry. Edge is small and liquidity is sufficient, so no strong entry at current le...
Yes ↓ -1% 6/9/2026, 00:00:25
The market is efficient in a tight spread, but there is no clear catalyst for a major Israeli airspace closure before June 15; price already reflects a low Yes probability.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.