6/21/2026, 00:02:03 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
4¢
No clear edge versus the current 4% Yes price. The market is already heavily favoring No, and the recent slide likely reflects that. Better to wait for news flow or a sharper mispricing.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price near 4% · Downtrend already priced in · No agreement catalyst visible
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
88%
Market implies a small Yes chance (~3.8-4.0%). Recent drift is down, but the price is already near the low end and spread/liquidity are tight. I see no clear catalyst or informational edge for a definitive US agreement by June 30.
6/19/2026, 00:01:19 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
7.7¢
The market is already near a low-probability regime and the spread is small, but there is no clear catalyst for a definitive US agreement. Edge is modest and not strong enough to buy or sell aggres...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No confirmed deal or public acceptance · 24h price drop in Yes · Ask depth outweighs Yes bids
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
72%
Market implies a low yes probability already; with no concrete diplomatic breakthrough and recent 24h decline, I see slightly less chance than priced. Orderbook also shows heavy ask depth on Yes, limiting upside.
6/18/2026, 18:01:23 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
10¢
Price remains above my estimated fair value; downside is larger than upside absent a clear negotiation catalyst.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.10 vs low event likelihood · 1d price down 2.75c · Orderbook favors No side
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-7% Confidence
74%
Current price 0.10 looks too high for a definitive US agreement by June 30. Recent 1d/6h trend is down, and the market still implies an unlikely diplomatic breakthrough.
6/18/2026, 12:01:25 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
10.4¢
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus a low-probability diplomatic outcome; better to fade the small bounce rather than chase it.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Explicit U.S. agreement required · No deal signal in summary · 24h price drop in Yes
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
73%
Market implies about 10.4% Yes; the premise requires a rare explicit U.S. acceptance, and there is no evidence in the summary of a pending deal. Recent 24h drop also signals reduced conviction in Yes.
6/17/2026, 18:01:30 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
13¢
Current Yes price still looks a bit rich relative to weak catalyst flow and bearish orderbook pressure.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes down 13.35% in 24h · Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes · No side has stronger liquidity support
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
74%
Price implies a low-probability deal, but the multi-day decline plus strong ask-side liquidity suggest even less chance than the market prices.
