Yes ↓ -1% 6/21/2026, 00:02:03
No clear edge versus the current 4% Yes price. The market is already heavily favoring No, and the recent slide likely reflects that. Better to wait for news flow or a sharper mispricing.
Unified market view
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 88%
Current price 4¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge versus the current 4% Yes price. The market is already heavily favoring No, and the recent slide likely reflects that. Better to wait for news flow or a sharper mispricing.
Watch triggers
- Yes price near 4%
- Downtrend already priced in
- No agreement catalyst visible
Why not now
No clear edge versus the current 4% Yes price. The market is already heavily favoring No, and the recent slide likely reflects that. Better to wait for news flow or a sharper mispricing.
Revisit when
Yes price near 4% · Downtrend already priced in · No agreement catalyst visible
Execution guard
Price 4¢ · spread 0.3 pts · liquidity $125,321. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:20:56
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
4.9¢Volume (24h) ?
$65,748Liquidity ?
$96,758Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.3¢Depth imbalance ?
-55.9%Momentum ?
19.8%Volatility ?
1.1%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
4.7¢ 1,312.65
4.6¢ 1,373.57
4.4¢ 1,000
4.3¢ 300
4.1¢ 617
Asks
5¢ 5,168.76
5.1¢ 4,710.92
5.7¢ 600
5.9¢ 800
6¢ 5,000
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/21/2026, 10:58:04 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:00:10 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:02:04 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:04:04 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:06:04 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:08:04 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:10:05 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:12:04 4.8¢
6/21/2026, 11:14:04 4.8¢
6/21/2026, 11:16:04 4.8¢
6/21/2026, 11:18:05 4.85¢
6/21/2026, 11:19:05 4.85¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 6/19/2026, 00:01:19
The market is already near a low-probability regime and the spread is small, but there is no clear catalyst for a definitive US agreement. Edge is modest and not strong enough to buy or sell aggres...
Yes ↓ -7% 6/18/2026, 18:01:23
Price remains above my estimated fair value; downside is larger than upside absent a clear negotiation catalyst.
Yes ↓ -1% 6/18/2026, 12:01:25
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus a low-probability diplomatic outcome; better to fade the small bounce rather than chase it.
Yes ↓ -5% 6/17/2026, 18:01:30
Current Yes price still looks a bit rich relative to weak catalyst flow and bearish orderbook pressure.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.