5/31/2026, 06:00:35 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
11¢
No clear positive catalyst for Yes and the book/flow still favor No; current Yes price is too low to sell aggressively, so hold is the best risk-adjusted call.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes order book imbalance is strongly positive but price trend remains down · 7d Yes price fell sharply from 0.42 to 0.115 · No side remains dominant at 0.88-0.89
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
84%
Market prices a small chance of a permanent US-Iran peace deal, but the prompt lacks catalyst evidence and recent price/action trend is still downward with heavy No pressure. The order book also favors No, so Yes looks slightly overpriced.
5/30/2026, 00:00:49 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
18¢
No clear edge at current 18% Yes price; recent pricing and book structure still favor No, but liquidity and time to expiry reduce urgency.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price has fallen recently · Orderbook favors No · No confirmed deal news
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
64%
Market-implied Yes is about 18.5%, but the 24h/6h drift is down and orderbook pressure favors No, leaving little upside for Yes absent a fresh diplomatic breakthrough.
5/28/2026, 12:00:29 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
19¢
Yes looks slightly overvalued versus weak recent momentum and the lack of concrete deal-confirmation signals.
Triggers 1d price down 14 pts · 6h trend still lower · No definitive agreement evidence
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-9% Confidence
77%
Price has fallen sharply over 1d and 6h, with persistent downward momentum. Orderbook still prices Yes near 0.19, but no fresh evidence of a qualifying permanent deal is provided.
5/27/2026, 00:00:25 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
36¢
Price remains elevated relative to the event’s binary difficulty and recent negative momentum. Slight bid support is not enough to offset the downward trend and time decay.
Triggers 1d price down 6c · 1h price down 3c · Ask near 0.36
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
78%
Yes has drifted down across 1h/6h/1d, while the ask is still near 0.35-0.36. Orderbook is only mildly bid-leaning, and the market price still looks rich versus the lack of visible catalyst for a definitive permanent deal by the deadline.
