Yes ↓ -3% 5/31/2026, 06:00:35
No clear positive catalyst for Yes and the book/flow still favor No; current Yes price is too low to sell aggressively, so hold is the best risk-adjusted call.
Unified market view
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 84%
Current price 11¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear positive catalyst for Yes and the book/flow still favor No; current Yes price is too low to sell aggressively, so hold is the best risk-adjusted call.
Watch triggers
- Yes order book imbalance is strongly positive but price trend remains down
- 7d Yes price fell sharply from 0.42 to 0.115
- No side remains dominant at 0.88-0.89
Why not now
No clear positive catalyst for Yes and the book/flow still favor No; current Yes price is too low to sell aggressively, so hold is the best risk-adjusted call.
Revisit when
Yes order book imbalance is strongly positive but price trend remains down · 7d Yes price fell sharply from 0.42 to 0.115 · No side remains dominant at 0.88-0.89
Execution guard
Price 11¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $326,268. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:38:05
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
11¢Volume (24h) ?
$770,048Liquidity ?
$296,114Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
4.0%Momentum ?
-8.7%Volatility ?
1.2%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
10¢ 33,935.92
9¢ 58,768.23
8¢ 87,551.63
7¢ 49,741
6¢ 16,279.12
Asks
11¢ 1,546.81
12¢ 37,072.31
13¢ 47,027.16
14¢ 57,134
15¢ 84,776.4
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:15:07 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:06 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:04 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:05 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:04 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:07 10.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 11.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:37:04 10.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -1% 5/30/2026, 00:00:49
No clear edge at current 18% Yes price; recent pricing and book structure still favor No, but liquidity and time to expiry reduce urgency.
Yes ↓ -9% 5/28/2026, 12:00:29
Yes looks slightly overvalued versus weak recent momentum and the lack of concrete deal-confirmation signals.
Yes ↓ -8% 5/27/2026, 00:00:25
Price remains elevated relative to the event’s binary difficulty and recent negative momentum. Slight bid support is not enough to offset the downward trend and time decay.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 5/31/2026, 14:25:36
$8,900 89¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 10:41:55
$8,900 89¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 10:26:47
$15,000 89¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 09:35:34
$7,120 89¢
Sell · No 5/31/2026, 08:42:19
$12,019 88¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 08:25:34
$9,263 88¢
Sell · No 5/31/2026, 06:01:38
$7,193 88¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 05:34:27
$44,500 89¢