6/11/2026, 18:01:29 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
61¢
Price has run up fast, but there is no clear new catalyst confirming a qualifying U.S. announcement; better to wait than chase into thin upside.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1h jump already priced in · Ask depth outweighs bids · No official extension confirmed
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
68%
Yes trades at 0.61 but momentum has already pushed sharply higher; orderbook shows heavy ask depth over bid depth, suggesting resistance and limited further upside absent fresh official U.S. confirmation.
6/10/2026, 18:01:05 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
37¢
Price looks a bit rich versus the lack of a clear catalyst; momentum and book lean against Yes.
Triggers 24h price down 8 pts · 7d price down 20.5 pts · ask depth > bid depth at top levels
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
67%
Market implies ~0.37; recent drift and 24h/7d decline suggest lower odds of a qualifying official U.S. extension before expiry. Orderbook is balanced-to-bearish with ask depth slightly heavier than bid at the top levels.
6/10/2026, 00:02:23 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
42¢
Current Yes price around 0.42 looks a bit rich versus the likelihood of a formal qualifying U.S. announcement by expiry.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1h and 6h Yes drift down · No confirmed extension headline · Ask-side liquidity heavier than bid
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-7% Confidence
62%
Price implies a modest chance of an official extension, but recent drift and weak ask-side resistance suggest the market may be slightly too optimistic. No clear catalyst for a qualifying U.S. announcement is evident from the summary.
6/9/2026, 06:02:17 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
44¢
Price looks fairly efficient around 0.43-0.44. Positive sentiment and bid support are offset by the need for a formal qualifying announcement, so there is no clear edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.44 vs 0.42 bid · Orderbook favors Yes · Event requires explicit U.S. announcement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
62%
Yes trades above the bid with recent 24h/1d momentum up, but the market still prices a qualifying official U.S. announcement as somewhat more likely than I assess. Orderbook leans to Yes, yet the event requires a specific public extension or successor agreement and no fresh confirmation is evident.
6/7/2026, 00:02:19 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
37¢
No clear catalyst for a qualifying U.S. announcement; price action favors No, but the spread is tight and the market is already near efficient.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes down 28 pts in 1w · No orderbook still favored · No official extension announced
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
63%
Yes has weakened sharply over the week and continues to drift down despite stable near-term trading. Current 0.37 price still implies some extension chance, but lack of a concrete official announcement signal leaves limited upside versus the market.
