Yes ↓ -3% 6/11/2026, 18:01:29
Price has run up fast, but there is no clear new catalyst confirming a qualifying U.S. announcement; better to wait than chase into thin upside.
Unified market view
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 68%
Current price 61¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price has run up fast, but there is no clear new catalyst confirming a qualifying U.S. announcement; better to wait than chase into thin upside.
Watch triggers
- 1h jump already priced in
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- No official extension confirmed
Why not now
Price has run up fast, but there is no clear new catalyst confirming a qualifying U.S. announcement; better to wait than chase into thin upside.
Revisit when
1h jump already priced in · Ask depth outweighs bids · No official extension confirmed
Execution guard
Price 61¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $104,221. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:19:26
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
81¢Volume (24h) ?
$326,510Liquidity ?
$68,411Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
-34.7%Momentum ?
13.4%Volatility ?
1.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
78¢ 39.57
77¢ 525.98
76¢ 3,307.69
75¢ 3,225.94
74¢ 2,698.19
Asks
80¢ 1,317.58
81¢ 10
82¢ 7,405.13
83¢ 5,976.33
84¢ 5,509.42
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/13/2026, 12:57:05 80¢
6/13/2026, 12:59:05 80¢
6/13/2026, 13:01:04 80¢
6/13/2026, 13:03:05 80¢
6/13/2026, 13:05:04 80¢
6/13/2026, 13:07:04 80¢
6/13/2026, 13:09:22 79¢
6/13/2026, 13:11:07 79.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:13:04 80.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:15:06 80.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:17:05 80.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:18:06 80.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -8% 6/10/2026, 18:01:05
Price looks a bit rich versus the lack of a clear catalyst; momentum and book lean against Yes.
Yes ↓ -7% 6/10/2026, 00:02:23
Current Yes price around 0.42 looks a bit rich versus the likelihood of a formal qualifying U.S. announcement by expiry.
Yes ↓ -5% 6/9/2026, 06:02:17
Price looks fairly efficient around 0.43-0.44. Positive sentiment and bid support are offset by the need for a formal qualifying announcement, so there is no clear edge.
Yes ↓ -2% 6/7/2026, 00:02:19
No clear catalyst for a qualifying U.S. announcement; price action favors No, but the spread is tight and the market is already near efficient.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · Yes 6/13/2026, 08:35:46
$5,353 76¢
Buy · Yes 6/13/2026, 08:04:48
$7,000 77.53¢