Yes ↓ -3% 6/20/2026, 18:01:40
No clear edge at current pricing; Yes is cheap but remains an event-risk longshot with weak confirmation signal.
Unified market view
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 74%
Current price 11.1¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge at current pricing; Yes is cheap but remains an event-risk longshot with weak confirmation signal.
Watch triggers
- Yes around 11%
- No side dominates book
- No deal confirmation
Why not now
No clear edge at current pricing; Yes is cheap but remains an event-risk longshot with weak confirmation signal.
Revisit when
Yes around 11% · No side dominates book · No deal confirmation
Execution guard
Price 11.1¢ · spread 0.3 pts · liquidity $71,540. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:10:39
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
14.7¢Volume (24h) ?
$74,355Liquidity ?
$61,480Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.9¢Depth imbalance ?
5.7%Momentum ?
1.4%Volatility ?
1.3%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
14.4¢ 474.14
14.3¢ 1,498.5
14.2¢ 54
14¢ 30.35
13.9¢ 350
Asks
15.3¢ 254.42
15.4¢ 129.87
15.7¢ 1,009
15.9¢ 200
16.5¢ 555.7
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/21/2026, 10:49:03 14.7¢
6/21/2026, 10:51:04 14.7¢
6/21/2026, 10:53:03 14.7¢
6/21/2026, 10:55:05 14.7¢
6/21/2026, 10:57:05 14.7¢
6/21/2026, 10:59:04 14.65¢
6/21/2026, 11:01:17 14.8¢
6/21/2026, 11:03:04 14.8¢
6/21/2026, 11:05:05 14.65¢
6/21/2026, 11:07:03 14.45¢
6/21/2026, 11:09:04 14.45¢
6/21/2026, 11:10:05 14.7¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 6/19/2026, 12:01:42
The price is still low, but the current edge is not strong enough to justify buying; liquidity is adequate and the spread is tight, yet the jump in the last day may be overreacting to headlines.
Yes ↓ -3% 6/19/2026, 00:01:31
Price appears a bit rich for a permanent Israel-Hezbollah peace deal given the short-term downtrend and lack of catalyst evidence.
Yes ↓ -7% 6/17/2026, 18:01:43
Yes is trading richer than the orderbook midpoint and momentum has likely outrun fundamentals without a qualifying announcement.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.