5/31/2026, 00:01:12 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
7¢
The market already prices a very low Yes probability, and there is no clear catalyst or data signal to justify a trade at current levels.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price near floor · Persistent bearish momentum · No clear IMF Portwatch catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
74%
Price is only 0.07, but orderflow and recent momentum still favor No; no evidence of a near-term return to the 60 threshold by expiry.
5/30/2026, 00:01:00 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
9¢
The market appears efficiently priced for a low-probability outcome, with no clear edge and relatively balanced liquidity despite a wide No preference.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price near 9% · recent Yes trend down · no strong catalyst evident
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
56%
Yes is priced around 9%, which already implies an extreme event. Orderbook and recent history show mild downward pressure on Yes, and I see no strong catalyst to justify a higher probability than the market.
5/29/2026, 18:01:18 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
15¢
Price is efficient around a low-probability threshold event; the recent uptick in Yes looks like noise rather than a strong repricing edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes only ~0.15 · No side dominant at ~0.86 · Recent move up lacks confirming catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
72%
Yes is trading ~0.15, but recent drift and strong No pricing suggest the market expects normal traffic to remain below the 60 threshold; no clear catalyst for a jump to resolution level.
