Unified market view

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 74%

Current price 7¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

The market already prices a very low Yes probability, and there is no clear catalyst or data signal to justify a trade at current levels.

Watch triggers

Yes price near floor
Persistent bearish momentum
No clear IMF Portwatch catalyst

Why not now

The market already prices a very low Yes probability, and there is no clear catalyst or data signal to justify a trade at current levels.

Revisit when

Yes price near floor · Persistent bearish momentum · No clear IMF Portwatch catalyst

Execution guard

Price 7¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $253,970. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:59

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

6¢

Volume (24h) ?

$180,724

Liquidity ?

$312,221

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

31.9%

Momentum ?

-15.4%

Volatility ?

1.1%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

5¢ 54,349.27

4¢ 36,222.53

3¢ 93,526.62

2¢ 55,485.4

1¢ 86,185.47

Asks

6¢ 140

7¢ 8,756.5

8¢ 47,207.76

9¢ 71,379.47

10¢ 40,604.31

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:14:03 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:16:05 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:18:04 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:20:05 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:22:05 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:24:04 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:26:03 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:28:03 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:30:03 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:32:04 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:34:03 5.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:35:04 5.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 5/31/2026, 00:01:12

The market already prices a very low Yes probability, and there is no clear catalyst or data signal to justify a trade at current levels.

Yes ↓ -1% 5/30/2026, 00:01:00

The market appears efficiently priced for a low-probability outcome, with no clear edge and relatively balanced liquidity despite a wide No preference.

Yes ↓ -3% 5/29/2026, 18:01:18

Price is efficient around a low-probability threshold event; the recent uptick in Yes looks like noise rather than a strong repricing edge.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 5/31/2026, 12:22:05

$23,500 94¢

Buy · No 5/31/2026, 03:42:04

$9,400 94¢

Buy · No 5/30/2026, 23:59:53

$18,897 93¢