Polysage · Prediction history

6/19/2026, 12:00:23 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Sell Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

Yes looks overpriced relative to the low-probability requirement for a formal troop-withdrawal agreement. The price is near the ceiling, so expected value favors fading it if shorting is feasible.

Triggers Price pinned at 0.999 · Specific formal agreement required · No confirming announcement

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -15% Confidence 91%

The market is priced at 0.999 with massive liquidity and a stable top-of-book, leaving almost no upside. The event requires a very specific official withdrawal agreement, which remains highly uncertain despite recent price momentum.

6/18/2026, 18:00:49 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 74¢

Current price looks rich versus orderbook and recent selloff; the event requires an explicit Trump/U.S. commitment, which is a relatively low-probability policy action absent new catalyst.

Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

Triggers Last trade above best ask · 1h/6h price down · Orderbook depth favors No

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -6% Confidence 67%

Yes trades around 0.68-0.69 bid/ask but last trade is 0.74; recent 1h/6h/1d momentum is down and orderbook depth slightly favors No, suggesting the market is still too high for the stated condition.