Unified market view

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

Share to X Follow alerts Open on Polymarket

Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Action: Sell

Sell

Model edge Yes ↓ -15%

Confidence 91%

Current price 99.9¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Yes looks overpriced relative to the low-probability requirement for a formal troop-withdrawal agreement. The price is near the ceiling, so expected value favors fading it if shorting is feasible.

Watch triggers

Price pinned at 0.999
Specific formal agreement required
No confirming announcement

Action basis

Yes looks overpriced relative to the low-probability requirement for a formal troop-withdrawal agreement. The price is near the ceiling, so expected value favors fading it if shorting is feasible.

Invalidation watch

Price pinned at 0.999 · Specific formal agreement required · No confirming announcement

Execution guard

Price 99.9¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $3,240,498. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:08:21

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

100¢

Volume (24h) ?

$1,658,973

Liquidity ?

$5,483,901

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

—

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

99.9¢ 4,983,878.29

99.8¢ 232,542.18

99.7¢ 80,088.09

99.6¢ 1,349.01

99.5¢ 15,400

Asks

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/21/2026, 10:45:05 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 10:47:04 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 10:49:03 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 10:51:04 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 10:53:03 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 10:55:04 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 10:57:05 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 10:59:03 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 11:01:17 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 11:03:04 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 11:05:04 99.95¢

6/21/2026, 11:06:03 99.95¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -15% 6/19/2026, 12:00:23

Yes looks overpriced relative to the low-probability requirement for a formal troop-withdrawal agreement. The price is near the ceiling, so expected value favors fading it if shorting is feasible.

Yes ↓ -6% 6/18/2026, 18:00:49

Current price looks rich versus orderbook and recent selloff; the event requires an explicit Trump/U.S. commitment, which is a relatively low-probability policy action absent new catalyst.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.