Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
14¢
The Yes price appears slightly rich versus the long-shot fundamentals and flat recent tape, so fading the outcome is favored.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No price momentum · Long-shot event · Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
62%
Crimea recapture by 2026 remains a very low-probability event; the market price around 14% still looks generous given the lack of visible momentum and only modest bid support.