Yes ↓ -4% 6/28/2026, 12:01:13
The Yes price appears slightly rich versus the long-shot fundamentals and flat recent tape, so fading the outcome is favored.
Unified market view
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 62%
Current price 14¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes price appears slightly rich versus the long-shot fundamentals and flat recent tape, so fading the outcome is favored.
Watch triggers
- No price momentum
- Long-shot event
- Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Why not now
The Yes price appears slightly rich versus the long-shot fundamentals and flat recent tape, so fading the outcome is favored.
Revisit when
No price momentum · Long-shot event · Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Execution guard
Price 14¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $241,319. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/28/2026, 13:30:36
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
14¢Volume (24h) ?
$126,089Liquidity ?
$258,596Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
20.1%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.4%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
13¢ 17,223.25
12¢ 51,883.93
11¢ 81,250.55
10¢ 80,636.32
9¢ 2,573.74
Asks
14¢ 37,009.54
15¢ 53,935.3
16¢ 37,954.52
17¢ 15,345.16
18¢ 11,075.72
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/28/2026, 13:09:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:11:03 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:13:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:15:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:17:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:19:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:21:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:23:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:25:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:27:03 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:29:04 13.5¢
6/28/2026, 13:30:05 13.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 6/28/2026, 06:27:55
$13,000 14¢