Unified market view

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Action: Sell

Sell

Model edge Yes ↓ -12%

Confidence 72%

Current price 62¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Current price seems ahead of fundamentals; absent an official permanent agreement, upside is limited while reversion risk remains.

Watch triggers

No official US-Iran agreement
Recent price run-up may overstate odds
Ask at 0.63-0.64 with limited confirmation

Action basis

Current price seems ahead of fundamentals; absent an official permanent agreement, upside is limited while reversion risk remains.

Invalidation watch

No official US-Iran agreement · Recent price run-up may overstate odds · Ask at 0.63-0.64 with limited confirmation

Execution guard

Price 62¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $191,662. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:00:10

Signal

Buy

Best ask ?

69¢

Volume (24h) ?

$162,959

Liquidity ?

$190,662

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

2¢

Depth imbalance ?

34.1%

Momentum ?

8.7%

Volatility ?

0.5%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

68¢ 868.44

67¢ 1,999.99

66¢ 2,147.97

65¢ 3,505

64¢ 425.15

Asks

70¢ 238.8

71¢ 764.85

72¢ 1,177.6

73¢ 1,041.31

74¢ 1,169.63

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/13/2026, 12:38:05 69.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:40:04 69.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:42:04 69.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:44:05 68.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:46:17 68.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:48:10 68.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:50:07 68.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:52:04 68.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:54:04 68.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:56:05 69.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:58:04 69¢

6/13/2026, 12:59:05 69¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -12% 6/13/2026, 06:02:26

Current price seems ahead of fundamentals; absent an official permanent agreement, upside is limited while reversion risk remains.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.