Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
23¢
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the current evidence; orderbook and recent price action both lean against an imminent qualifying deal.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.23 vs low recent momentum · No side dominates the book · Needs signed/adopted qualifying text by deadline
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
62%
Market is already pricing a meaningful chance of a signed final deal, but the contract requires a concrete, qualifying written instrument by Aug 31. Recent drift lower and the 77/23 book favoring No suggest the Yes price remains a bit rich versus execution risk.