Unified market view

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -5%

Confidence 62%

Current price 23¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the current evidence; orderbook and recent price action both lean against an imminent qualifying deal.

Watch triggers

Yes at 0.23 vs low recent momentum
No side dominates the book
Needs signed/adopted qualifying text by deadline

Why not now

Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the current evidence; orderbook and recent price action both lean against an imminent qualifying deal.

Revisit when

Yes at 0.23 vs low recent momentum · No side dominates the book · Needs signed/adopted qualifying text by deadline

Execution guard

Price 23¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $511,846. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/25/2026, 00:46:51

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

24¢

Volume (24h) ?

$988,422

Liquidity ?

$651,521

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

79.8%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

23¢ 387,263.38

22¢ 885,342.8

21¢ 671,778.09

20¢ 9,325

19¢ 501

Asks

24¢ 9,740.9

25¢ 70,613.31

26¢ 128,546.5

27¢ 10,264.27

28¢ 325

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/25/2026, 00:25:04 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:27:16 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:29:04 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:31:05 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:33:03 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:35:05 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:37:05 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:39:04 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:41:03 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:43:07 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:45:05 23.5¢

6/25/2026, 00:46:04 23.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -5% 6/24/2026, 18:00:36

Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the current evidence; orderbook and recent price action both lean against an imminent qualifying deal.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.