Yes ↑ +2% 7/14/2026, 12:01:02
The market already prices a low-probability tail event, and there is no strong catalyst or orderbook dislocation to justify a clear buy/sell. Slight bullish lean on Yes is offset by strict resoluti...
Unified market view
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +2%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 24¢ Model run: 7/14/2026, 12:01:02
Live best ask 17¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 18:12:48
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market already prices a low-probability tail event, and there is no strong catalyst or orderbook dislocation to justify a clear buy/sell. Slight bullish lean on Yes is offset by strict resoluti...
Watch triggers
- Yes bid depth is strong but ask remains near market
- Price has risen over the week, then stalled
- Resolution requires explicit official withdrawal language
Why not now
The market already prices a low-probability tail event, and there is no strong catalyst or orderbook dislocation to justify a clear buy/sell. Slight bullish lean on Yes is offset by strict resoluti...
Revisit when
Yes bid depth is strong but ask remains near market · Price has risen over the week, then stalled · Resolution requires explicit official withdrawal language
Execution guard
Price 17¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $81,168. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 7/15/2026, 18:12:48
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
17¢Volume (24h) ?
$319,006Liquidity ?
$81,168Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
37.7%Momentum ?
-29.8%Volatility ?
3.6%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Volatility too high
Rule notes
- High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
16¢ 112
15¢ 7,566.93
14¢ 5,708.44
13¢ 8,204.94
12¢ 8,147.82
Asks
17¢ 1,364.54
18¢ 1,886.72
19¢ 4,186.52
20¢ 2,355.01
21¢ 3,667.27
Price history
Interval: 6h
7/15/2026, 17:51:05 15¢
7/15/2026, 17:53:07 15.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:55:04 15.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:57:05 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:59:19 17¢
7/15/2026, 18:01:05 17¢
7/15/2026, 18:03:04 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:05:04 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:07:05 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:09:05 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:11:04 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:12:06 16.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 7/12/2026, 12:01:56
The market is efficient near 19c with tight spread and balanced recent microstructure; I see no clear mispricing or event catalyst to trade aggressively.
Yes ↓ -3% 7/11/2026, 18:02:24
No clear mispricing: tight spread, strong No dominance, and no event-specific signal indicating an imminent official withdrawal announcement.
Yes → +1% 7/11/2026, 00:01:55
Price looks efficient around 13c; no strong catalyst or orderbook dislocation suggests a clear buy/sell edge.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 7/15/2026, 10:48:08
$6,588 74.76¢