Polysage · Prediction history

7/26/2026, 12:01:02 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 6¢

Yes appears overpriced versus the current trend and orderbook, with downside pressure intact and no near-term catalyst for a $100 print.

Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

Triggers Yes bid is thin vs ask · No side has strong depth · 1d/1w trend down sharply

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -1% Confidence 84%

Market implies ~6% Yes; orderbook and history show persistent drift lower and heavy support for No. Slightly bearish on Yes, but edge is small because event still has nonzero tail risk.

7/26/2026, 00:01:39 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 9.9¢

Fade the Yes side: trend and orderbook both favor No, while the threshold remains far above current pricing.

Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

Triggers Yes price near 0.10 · Negative recent momentum · Bid depth below ask depth

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 84%

Market implies ~9.9% Yes. Recent price action is persistently down, with weaker bid-side depth and no evidence of an imminent spike to $100, so Yes looks slightly overpriced.