Unified market view

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -7%

Confidence 68%

Price at model run 14.2¢ Model run: 7/15/2026, 12:01:13

Live best ask 6.4¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 18:10:22

Model gpt-5.4-mini

No clear catalyst for a qualifying official withdrawal announcement, and the current price already reflects a low-probability event. Edge is small and liquidity/spread do not create a strong tradin...

Watch triggers

No official withdrawal signal
Short time window remains
Price already low

Why not now

Revisit when

No official withdrawal signal · Short time window remains · Price already low

Execution guard

Price 6.4¢ · spread 0.6 pts · liquidity $95,181. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/15/2026, 18:10:22

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

6.4¢

Volume (24h) ?

$518,044

Liquidity ?

$95,181

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.8¢

Depth imbalance ?

45.2%

Momentum ?

-54.3%

Volatility ?

5.5%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

5.2¢ 57.69

5.1¢ 1,394.9

5¢ 1,517.64

4.8¢ 50

4.6¢ 108.69

Asks

6¢ 7.09

6.1¢ 390

6.3¢ 500

6.6¢ 35

6.7¢ 250

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/15/2026, 17:48:06 7.3¢

7/15/2026, 17:50:09 7.3¢

7/15/2026, 17:52:06 7.55¢

7/15/2026, 17:54:06 6.6¢

7/15/2026, 17:56:07 6.4¢

7/15/2026, 17:58:06 7.3¢

7/15/2026, 18:00:16 7¢

7/15/2026, 18:02:04 6.3¢

7/15/2026, 18:04:06 6.05¢

7/15/2026, 18:06:06 6.2¢

7/15/2026, 18:08:06 6.15¢

7/15/2026, 18:09:06 6.1¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -7% 7/15/2026, 12:01:13

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 7/15/2026, 15:09:19

$6,241 89.47¢

Sell · No 7/15/2026, 12:49:16

$14,388 87.2¢