Unified market view

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -10%

Confidence 74%

Price at model run 40¢ Model run: 8/2/2026, 05:45:16

Live best ask 39¢ Live update: 8/2/2026, 05:55:02

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Market has moved up sharply, but the event still needs a rare, unambiguous official announcement. Current price is not obviously mispriced enough to buy or sell aggressively.

Watch triggers

No clear official-policy catalyst
Recent jump likely overshot
Spread is tight but edge is modest

Why not now

Market has moved up sharply, but the event still needs a rare, unambiguous official announcement. Current price is not obviously mispriced enough to buy or sell aggressively.

Revisit when

No clear official-policy catalyst · Recent jump likely overshot · Spread is tight but edge is modest

Execution guard

Price 39¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $60,267. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/2/2026, 05:55:02

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

39¢

Volume (24h) ?

$139,276

Liquidity ?

$60,267

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

76.4%

Momentum ?

156.7%

Volatility ?

4.0%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢
Volatility too high

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

38¢ 1,244.23

37¢ 6,153.52

36¢ 3,412.67

35¢ 2,881.85

34¢ 8,674.32

Asks

39¢ 864.98

40¢ 309.32

41¢ 452.63

42¢ 917.35

43¢ 455

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/2/2026, 05:31:10 40¢

8/2/2026, 05:33:10 40¢

8/2/2026, 05:35:08 39¢

8/2/2026, 05:37:08 39¢

8/2/2026, 05:39:08 39¢

8/2/2026, 05:41:08 39¢

8/2/2026, 05:43:10 38.5¢

8/2/2026, 05:45:09 38.5¢

8/2/2026, 05:47:08 38.5¢

8/2/2026, 05:49:11 38.5¢

8/2/2026, 05:51:16 38.5¢

8/2/2026, 05:52:10 38.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -10% 8/2/2026, 05:45:16

Market has moved up sharply, but the event still needs a rare, unambiguous official announcement. Current price is not obviously mispriced enough to buy or sell aggressively.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.