Elvina Kalieva → 0% 8/1/2026, 00:03:19
The contract is closed and the outcome is already priced at the ceiling, leaving no meaningful expected value or liquidity edge.
Unified market view
The Memphis Classic: Elvina Kalieva vs Peyton Stearns
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Risky tape
Hold
Model edge Elvina Kalieva → 0%
Confidence 97%
Price at model run 99.9¢ Model run: 8/1/2026, 00:03:19
Live best ask 100¢ Live update: 8/1/2026, 00:42:02
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The contract is closed and the outcome is already priced at the ceiling, leaving no meaningful expected value or liquidity edge.
Watch triggers
- Current price 0.999
- Best ask 1.0
- Market closed
Why not now
The contract is closed and the outcome is already priced at the ceiling, leaving no meaningful expected value or liquidity edge.
Revisit when
Current price 0.999 · Best ask 1.0 · Market closed
Execution guard
Price 100¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $0. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/1/2026, 00:42:02
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
100¢Volume (24h) ?
$457,763Liquidity ?
$0Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
—Momentum ?
55.0%Volatility ?
7.7%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Volatility too high
Rule notes
- High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.
Orderbook
Outcome Elvina Kalieva
No orderbook data yet.
Price history
Interval: 6h
7/31/2026, 23:25:22 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:27:06 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:29:09 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:31:09 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:33:09 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:35:10 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:37:07 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:39:10 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:41:10 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:43:09 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:45:10 99.95¢
7/31/2026, 23:47:09 99.95¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.