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Prediction history

Market #540224

1/25/2026, 06:02:33 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 28.7¢

Orderbook imbalance (large bidDepthTopN vs tiny askDepthTopN) and recent upward momentum favor short-term buys; tight spread and high liquidity make execution feasible.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Significant ask-side sweep or sudden large sell orders (askDepthTopN rises sharply) · Price drops below ~0.26 on increased volume · Definitive negative team news or official elimination
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +3% Confidence 45%

Heavy bid-side depth and strong one-week upward trend imply persistent buy pressure vs small ask liquidity; low short-term volatility suggests price is moving steadily higher, indicating market underprices upside by a few points.

1/25/2026, 00:04:03 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 29.4¢

No clear edge and orderbook imbalance with thin bids makes trading now risky; wait for clearer catalysts or improved liquidity.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Meaningful roster changes (trades/free agency) · Key injuries to/from starters (QB/WR/primary defenders) · Regular-season performance diverges strongly from market expectations
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 35%

Conflicting signals: recent price rally over the week (+0.083) but heavy ask-side liquidity for 'Yes' (very low bidDepthTopN vs large askDepthTopN); long time to event and many external uncertainties — no reliable model edge.

1/24/2026, 18:04:29 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 28.6¢

No clear edge versus market price given deep orderbook and recent price moves likely reflect available information; wait for material new information or a clearer dislocation.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Significant roster changes (major trade, free agent signing, or injury to key players) · Regular-season performance deviates substantially from expectations (start ≥3-0 or ≤0-3) · Large, sustained price move accompanied by orderbook imbalance (e.g., >5-10% move with persistent depth skew)
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%

High liquidity, razor-tight spread, low short-term volatility and no external/team-specific signals provided—market appears efficient and I detect no reliable mispricing to exploit.

1/24/2026, 12:04:30 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 28.6¢

Estimated fair probability ~34.6% vs market 28.6% (edge +6%); strong buy-side orderbook, tight spread and rising volumes support taking a medium-term long position while monitoring team/news events.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Price rises above 0.33 — consider taking profits or trimming · Price falls below 0.25 — re-evaluate/stop-loss · Major Rams injury or roster/coach change
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 55%

Sustained upward price momentum (week: +0.081), tight spread and heavy bid-side depth (imbalance ~0.745), rising volume — market appears to underprice continued bullish flow; short-term volatility is low so move is persistent but event uncertainty limits confidence.

1/24/2026, 06:05:17 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 28.6¢

Modest positive edge from orderbook imbalance and recent upward momentum; liquidity supports entering a small position but fundamentals/injury news are unknown.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Rams advance in upcoming playoff game (positive) · Major injury to key Rams player (negative) · Significant shift in ask/bid depth or sudden large sell orders
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +4% Confidence 35%

Tight spread, high liquidity, stronger bid depth and positive 1w/1d price slope indicate buying pressure and short-term upside versus the 0.286 price; lack of team-specific fundamentals limits confidence.