1/25/2026, 06:04:00 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
25¢
Small negative edge vs market in an otherwise liquid, tight market — recommend trimming exposure over a medium horizon unless new positive fundamentals arrive.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price rises above 0.30 (re-evaluate as market may be overbought) · Major roster upgrade or coaching change favoring Patriots · Clear evidence of playoff contention (e.g., sustained win streak / improved ELO/division odds)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -5% Confidence 60%
High liquidity and tight spread imply an efficient market; recent week gains look mean-reverting and short-term declines in 24h/6h suggest upside momentum faded. Absent clear roster/season catalysts, model probabilities are modestly below the 25% market price.
1/25/2026, 00:04:45 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
25.8¢
Small positive edge with robust liquidity and persistent upward trend; low volatility lowers trade risk but short-term noise exists.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Key Patriots injury report or major roster news · Significant early-season losses or official elimination scenarios · Orderbook imbalance flips strongly bearish (imbalance <0.40)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +4% Confidence 35%
Strong 7-day rally from ~0.13 to ~0.258, positive orderbook imbalance and deep liquidity suggest market may still underprice continued momentum despite a small short-term pullback.
1/24/2026, 18:05:10 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
25.9¢
Small positive edge from orderbook demand and weekly momentum; tight spread and deep liquidity support executing a modest buy, but long horizon and event risk limit conviction.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price rises >5% (momentum confirmation) · Price falls >5% (reassess / potential stop) · Major roster/coach news (trades, hires, injuries)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +4% Confidence 38%
Week-long strong rally (0.1345 → 0.2575) and a pronounced orderbook imbalance favoring Yes (bidDepthTopN ~38.6k vs askDepthTopN ~9.8k) imply demand-driven underpricing vs current price 0.259; recent 24h dip and long time-to-resolution keep uncertainty moderate.
1/24/2026, 12:06:58 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
25.7¢
Small positive edge driven by sustained buy pressure and strong weekly uptrend; execution is feasible given tight spread and deep liquidity but uncertainty remains high for an event far from resolu...
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers price drops below 0.24 (buy more) · bidDepthTopN increases materially (>1.5x) · Patriots show clear on-field improvement (wins/injury luck/roster upgrades)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +2% Confidence 35%
Weekly price nearly doubled from ~0.13 to 0.257 and orderbook shows heavier buy-side depth (imbalance ~0.69); tight spread and high liquidity support a small positive revaluation despite a modest recent pullback.
1/24/2026, 00:05:07 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
25.9¢
High liquidity and recent momentum but no verifiable fundamentals or model signal to justify buying or selling now; prefer to wait for news or clearer value.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers major roster injury or star signing · regular season start / depth-chart clarity · team eliminated from playoff contention
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
No reliable model advantage vs. market price; large liquidity and a recent week-long run-up without clear fundamental drivers leaves no actionable edge.
