5/28/2026, 18:02:20 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
15.3¢
Price is near fair for a low-probability longshot; orderbook shows heavier asks on Yes and the recent bounce does not create clear value.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes ask depth exceeds bid depth · 1w price fell sharply overall · Recent uptick is modest and volatile
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
63%
Market price implies about 15.3%; Spurs are still a long shot with no strong catalyst, and recent move looks driven by short-term repricing after a prior spike.
5/28/2026, 12:02:29 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
14.8¢
No clear positive edge at current levels. Liquidity is solid, but recent downtrend and orderbook leaning against Yes reduce conviction for buying.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down sharply · No-side orderbook dominance · tight spread but no catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
67%
Market price (~0.148) already reflects a low Spurs title chance. Recent 1w collapse and persistent No-side depth/ask pressure suggest the price is not cheap; limited short-term catalyst for upside.
5/27/2026, 12:00:38 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
14.4¢
Yes appears overpriced versus my estimate, and momentum plus orderbook favor continuation lower despite tight spread.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price fell 10.3% in 24h · 1-week trend remains sharply down · Yes ask depth is thin vs bid depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
82%
Market implies about 14.4% for Spurs title; that looks rich given long-horizon NBA uncertainty, and recent price action is still trending down.
5/26/2026, 12:02:04 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
24.7¢
Price has been trending down across all horizons and still looks slightly rich versus my estimate. The bid-ask spread is tight, so fading the current level is reasonable.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down 13.9 pts · 1d price down 1.35 pts · Current price 0.247 above estimate
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
68%
The market implies about 24.7% for Spurs title, but recent price action is persistently lower over 1h/6h/1d/1w. Even with some bid support, the move suggests the true probability is a bit below current price.
5/24/2026, 06:01:35 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
15.3¢
Price is efficient near a low-probability long shot; downside momentum exists, but the spread is tight and edge is small, so no clear trade at current price.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down 7.7% · best ask 0.153 · orderbook favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
73%
Spurs are priced around 15.3%, but recent 1w move is sharply down and orderbook slightly favors No. A Finals title remains a very low-probability path despite long-term upside.
