Unified market view

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

Follow alerts Open on Polymarket

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 63%

Current price 15.3¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is near fair for a low-probability longshot; orderbook shows heavier asks on Yes and the recent bounce does not create clear value.

Watch triggers

Yes ask depth exceeds bid depth
1w price fell sharply overall
Recent uptick is modest and volatile

Why not now

Price is near fair for a low-probability longshot; orderbook shows heavier asks on Yes and the recent bounce does not create clear value.

Revisit when

Yes ask depth exceeds bid depth · 1w price fell sharply overall · Recent uptick is modest and volatile

Execution guard

Price 15.3¢ · spread 0.2 pts · liquidity $247,087. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:37:24

Signal

Sell

Best ask ?

63.8¢

Volume (24h) ?

$1,089,326

Liquidity ?

$309,699

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-83.6%

Momentum ?

-0.9%

Volatility ?

0.1%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

63.7¢ 0.6

63.6¢ 384.99

63.5¢ 4,276.66

63.4¢ 2,750.19

63.3¢ 2,500

Asks

63.8¢ 58,169.44

63.9¢ 50,209.8

64.1¢ 190

64.2¢ 2,050

64.3¢ 15.57

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:15:03 63.65¢

5/31/2026, 14:17:05 63.65¢

5/31/2026, 14:19:03 63.65¢

5/31/2026, 14:21:06 63.65¢

5/31/2026, 14:23:04 63.7¢

5/31/2026, 14:25:03 63.7¢

5/31/2026, 14:27:04 63.7¢

5/31/2026, 14:29:04 63.7¢

5/31/2026, 14:31:06 63.7¢

5/31/2026, 14:33:03 63.75¢

5/31/2026, 14:35:04 63.75¢

5/31/2026, 14:36:03 63.75¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 5/28/2026, 18:02:20

Price is near fair for a low-probability longshot; orderbook shows heavier asks on Yes and the recent bounce does not create clear value.

Yes ↓ -2% 5/28/2026, 12:02:29

No clear positive edge at current levels. Liquidity is solid, but recent downtrend and orderbook leaning against Yes reduce conviction for buying.

Yes ↓ -6% 5/27/2026, 12:00:38

Yes appears overpriced versus my estimate, and momentum plus orderbook favor continuation lower despite tight spread.

Yes ↓ -6% 5/26/2026, 12:02:04

Price has been trending down across all horizons and still looks slightly rich versus my estimate. The bid-ask spread is tight, so fading the current level is reasonable.

Yes ↓ -2% 5/24/2026, 06:01:35

Price is efficient near a low-probability long shot; downside momentum exists, but the spread is tight and edge is small, so no clear trade at current price.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.