Yes ↑ +2% 6/21/2026, 06:00:36
No clear mispricing versus the current 11.8% price; the market has been flat intraday and the order book is balanced enough to avoid a strong directional call.
Unified market view
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +2%
Confidence 62%
Current price 11.8¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear mispricing versus the current 11.8% price; the market has been flat intraday and the order book is balanced enough to avoid a strong directional call.
Watch triggers
- Flat 1h/6h/1d history
- Tight 0.1% spread
- No fresh news catalyst
Why not now
No clear mispricing versus the current 11.8% price; the market has been flat intraday and the order book is balanced enough to avoid a strong directional call.
Revisit when
Flat 1h/6h/1d history · Tight 0.1% spread · No fresh news catalyst
Execution guard
Price 11.8¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $7,810,312. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:08:11
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
11.8¢Volume (24h) ?
$1,344,715Liquidity ?
$8,356,853Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
45.1%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
11.7¢ 807,766.93
11.6¢ 613,156.98
11.5¢ 1,042,115.53
11.4¢ 4,798
11.3¢ 48,539
Asks
11.8¢ 865,756.19
11.9¢ 4,010.01
12¢ 63,126.21
12.1¢ 2,468.79
12.2¢ 15,605
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/21/2026, 10:45:05 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 10:47:04 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 10:49:03 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 10:51:04 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 10:53:03 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 10:55:04 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 10:57:05 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 10:59:03 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 11:01:17 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 11:03:04 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 11:05:04 11.75¢
6/21/2026, 11:07:03 11.75¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -1% 6/19/2026, 18:00:45
Slight bearish edge versus current 11.8% price, with no momentum signal to justify paying current ask.
Yes → 0% 6/19/2026, 06:00:13
No clear edge versus the 11.8% market price. Orderbook is balanced enough and recent price action is flat, so expected value is limited.
Yes ↓ -1% 6/16/2026, 12:00:14
No clear positive edge at current price; strong opposition from orderbook and no fresh catalyst. Price is already near the low end of recent range.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 6/21/2026, 03:54:37
$123,532 88.3¢