Unified market view

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -3%

Confidence 64%

Price at model run 20¢ Model run: 7/15/2026, 06:00:19

Live best ask 42.2¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 23:54:57

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is efficient near 0.20 with strong opposing book pressure and no fresh positive edge for Yes.

Watch triggers

Yes bid/ask is tight at 0.199/0.2
Orderbook heavily favors No
Yes price fell over 1d and 1w

Why not now

Price is efficient near 0.20 with strong opposing book pressure and no fresh positive edge for Yes.

Revisit when

Yes bid/ask is tight at 0.199/0.2 · Orderbook heavily favors No · Yes price fell over 1d and 1w

Execution guard

Price 42.2¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $2,806,951. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/15/2026, 23:54:57

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

42.2¢

Volume (24h) ?

$13,838,335

Liquidity ?

$2,806,951

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-59.1%

Momentum ?

114.5%

Volatility ?

11.9%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

42.1¢ 200,597.5

42¢ 1,862.52

41.9¢ 328,087.24

41.8¢ 2,416.9

41.7¢ 2,522.76

Asks

42.2¢ 1,534,841.78

42.3¢ 36,631.29

42.4¢ 11,886.08

42.5¢ 501,354.91

42.6¢ 200

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/15/2026, 23:33:03 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:35:04 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:37:04 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:39:05 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:41:03 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:43:05 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:45:04 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:47:04 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:49:04 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:51:03 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:53:05 42.15¢

7/15/2026, 23:54:05 42.15¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -3% 7/15/2026, 06:00:19

Price is efficient near 0.20 with strong opposing book pressure and no fresh positive edge for Yes.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · Yes 7/15/2026, 22:48:52

$240,000 42.2¢

Buy · Yes 7/15/2026, 22:08:16

$367,846 42¢

Sell · No 7/15/2026, 21:43:52

$135,473 58¢

Buy · No 7/15/2026, 20:15:32

$1,124,777 82.74¢