Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
10¢
No meaningful edge versus the 10% market price; the market is efficient and Portugal is a longshot without near-term information advantage.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price near 10% · Flat short-term trend · No catalyst
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
92%
Portugal’s win probability remains extremely low at ~10%, with tight pricing and no decisive catalyst. Recent drift is flat intraday and the book is balanced enough to show no clear mispricing.