Unified market view

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes → 0%

Confidence 92%

Current price 10¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

No meaningful edge versus the 10% market price; the market is efficient and Portugal is a longshot without near-term information advantage.

Watch triggers

Price near 10%
Flat short-term trend
No catalyst

Why not now

No meaningful edge versus the 10% market price; the market is efficient and Portugal is a longshot without near-term information advantage.

Revisit when

Price near 10% · Flat short-term trend · No catalyst

Execution guard

Price 10¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $840,313. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:31

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

10¢

Volume (24h) ?

$473,753

Liquidity ?

$884,575

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-43.3%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

9.9¢ 120,248.74

9.8¢ 8,201.64

9.7¢ 10,789.22

9.6¢ 2,669.1

9.5¢ 3,028.99

Asks

10¢ 236,464.5

10.1¢ 66,767.8

10.2¢ 16,929

10.3¢ 17,062.51

10.4¢ 28,940.81

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:13:05 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:15:05 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:17:06 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:19:04 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:21:06 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:23:05 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:25:03 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:27:04 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:29:04 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:31:07 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:33:03 9.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:34:06 9.95¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes → 0% 5/31/2026, 12:00:50

No meaningful edge versus the 10% market price; the market is efficient and Portugal is a longshot without near-term information advantage.

Yes → 0% 5/29/2026, 06:00:38

Thin spread and stable price action suggest no clear mispricing at the current level; better to wait for team/form news or bracket developments.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.