1/25/2026, 06:07:19 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
20¢
No robust edge detected and price is stable with deep liquidity—better to wait for clearer information or a sizable price/poll move.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained price move >5% from current (up or down) · major national polls showing Newsom materially ahead/behind · formal announcement of candidacy or withdrawal
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
High liquidity and stable ~20% price with low volatility; orderbook shows buy-side depth but no clear informational signal to adjust probability versus market-implied 20%.
1/25/2026, 00:07:17 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
21¢
Tight spread, high liquidity and sustained bid-side depth support a small positive edge; buy small-to-moderate size to capture short-term momentum.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Top bid remains ≥ 0.20 with imbalance (bid depth >> ask depth) persisting · Price rising above 0.23 on increased volume · Clear positive news on Newsom's national profile or Democratic nomination prospects
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 40%
Persistent upward drift (0.19→0.21 over week), strong buy-side orderbook imbalance (bid depth >> ask depth), low volatility and high liquidity imply short-term underpricing; long-term political uncertainty limits confidence.
1/24/2026, 18:08:00 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
21¢
Near-term orderbook support and narrow spread create a low-cost entry to capture a small positive edge; limited confidence given event horizon and low volatility.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price falls to ≤ 0.19 (improved entry / add) · Price rises to ≥ 0.25 (consider taking profits) · Major national poll showing Newsom materially increases/decreases support
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +2% Confidence 25%
Persistent buy-side pressure (imbalance 0.873, large bid depth ~214k vs ask ~31k), small upward weekly drift and low volatility suggest market underpricing by a small margin.
1/24/2026, 12:07:58 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
20¢
Market seems to overstate Newsom's win chances vs model; liquidity and tight spread allow execution, so sell at current price and reassess on major news.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price falls below 0.15 — consider buying/covering · Price rises above 0.25 — consider increasing sell/short position · Newsom formally announces 2028 candidacy
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -10% Confidence 40%
Long-horizon candidate win probability estimated ~10% vs market price 20%; Newsom has name recognition but uncertain national viability and many contingent events through 2028—price appears elevated given current information.
1/24/2026, 00:07:17 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
20¢
Small positive edge driven by strong bid-side liquidity and tight spread; low volatility and long time horizon keep conviction low.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Formal Newsom 2028 campaign announcement · Sustained upward movement in national or early-state polls for Newsom · Major endorsements or fundraising surge
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +2% Confidence 35%
Tight spread, very large bid-side depth vs small ask depth (imbalance ~0.89) and stable price suggest buying pressure and modest undervaluation relative to a simple model; long time to expiry and high political uncertainty limit confidence.
