2/5/2026, 00:07:50 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
20¢
Negative edge (model < market) and price is stable with deep liquidity; sell exposure to capture expected overpricing.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Formal 2028 campaign announcement by Gavin Newsom · Sustained national primary polling showing Newsom >20% · Major Democratic figures publicly endorse or coalesce around Newsom
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 40%
I estimate Newsom's probability ~12% vs market 20%. He must first win the Democratic nomination (likely contested) then a general election; historical probabilities for non-incumbent governors are lower and current uncertainty doesn't justify a 20% price.
2/4/2026, 18:08:28 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
20¢
No detectable informational edge over a highly liquid, stable market; avoid trading absent nomination/polling catalysts or divergent odds.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Newsom becomes the clear Democratic nominee · National polls show Newsom materially outperforming other potential nominees · Significant, sustained price move (>5%) accompanied by high volume
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
Deep, stable market (price ~0.20, narrow spread, large bid/ask depth) and no recent price movement or new information to justify a model probability materially different from the market price; long time until event and nomination dynamics unknown.
2/4/2026, 12:06:38 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
20¢
Current price (~20%) appears meaningfully above my probability estimate; long time to resolution and low path-to-win justify selling exposure.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Newsom formally announces a 2028 presidential campaign · Consistent national polling shows Newsom leading the Democratic primary · Major Democratic contenders decline to run
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -15% Confidence 40%
Market implies 20% but I estimate ~5%: long horizon, uncertain nomination path, many likely competitors, and historically low base rates for a state governor to win an open presidential race.
2/4/2026, 06:07:07 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
20¢
Negative edge vs market (model 8% < market 20%) and high liquidity means you can exit at tight spreads; downside expected over long horizon absent new evidence.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Newsom formally announces a credible national campaign with strong early fundraising · National polling shows Newsom leading or competitive in Democratic primary/general-election polling · Major Democratic figures decline to run, consolidating support around Newsom
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -12% Confidence 40%
Market implies 20% chance. Given Newsom's limited national electability vs likely field, primary uncertainty, and long time horizon, I estimate ~8% probability. Deep, stable liquidity and narrow spread limit short-term mispricing but do not justify 20% as a standalone forecast.
2/4/2026, 00:07:01 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
19¢
Deep liquidity, stable price, and no clear informational advantage make active trading unwarranted until material news or polling shifts occur.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Gavin Newsom formally announces 2028 presidential candidacy · Sustained national polling showing Newsom rising materially (e.g., consistent >10–15% support) · Major endorsements or coalition-building that alter nominee dynamics
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 60%
No detectable informational edge: price stable at 19% across multiple intervals, high liquidity and narrow spread imply market consensus; no recent volatile signals or fresh data to justify diverging probability.
