2/5/2026, 00:04:58 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
11¢
Small negative edge and downward momentum + bid-heavy liquidity make rallies unlikely in the near term; prefer selling Yes at ~11% rather than buying.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official bilateral ceasefire announcement from both Russia and Ukraine · Major diplomatic breakthrough (formal peace summit/agreement) · Rapid, sustained price rise above ~0.18 with orderbook imbalance flipping toward asks
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 35%
Market at ~11% and has trended down (0.145 → 0.105 last week) with low volatility; orderbook imbalance favors No and ask depth is substantial. Given current momentum and liquidity, my model estimates ~8% probability (≈ -3 percentage points vs market). Geopolitical uncertainty keeps confidence modest.
2/4/2026, 18:05:10 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
11¢
No detectable informational edge vs market; tight spread and heavy liquidity but recent price trend is downward and no new signals to justify trading.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official bilateral ceasefire announcement by both Russia and Ukraine · Credible media consensus reporting a signed agreement · High-level mutual statements (presidents/foreign ministers) confirming terms
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
Current price (11%) reflects low probability; one-week downtrend from ~14.5% but short-term price is flat and orderbook is deep. No clear information advantage from available features to move model probability away from market price.
2/4/2026, 12:04:21 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
11¢
No clear edge versus market price; low volatility and large liquidity make trading unattractive now.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official bilateral announcement of a ceasefire or agreement-in-principle · Credible mediator statement (UN/EU/Turkey) confirming imminent deal · Major battlefield or political shift driving negotiations
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
Market-implied probability (~11%) aligns with my subjective estimate; low volatility, deep liquidity, and no new information create no exploitable edge.
2/4/2026, 06:04:56 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
11¢
Small positive edge (~+3%) and ample bid liquidity make a low-cost speculative buy-to-expiry reasonable, but overall conviction is low.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official bilateral ceasefire announcement by either government · Publicized high-level negotiation framework or roadmap agreed · Major diplomatic mediation breakthrough (EU/UN/Turkey announcements)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +3% Confidence 35%
Market price 11% with week-long downtrend but unusually strong bid-side depth for Yes and very low volatility; these suggest a small underpricing of tail risk for a negotiated ceasefire before Mar 31, 2026, so I estimate ~14% vs market 11%.
2/4/2026, 00:04:06 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
11¢
Model probability slightly below market price; deep No-side liquidity and limited runway to negotiate an official, mutually agreed ceasefire.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Announcement of scheduled high-level Russia–Ukraine peace talks with credible mediators · Joint official statement from both governments indicating a ceasefire agreement · Major battlefield stalemate or political shift prompting rapid negotiations
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -5% Confidence 60%
Short time to expiry (~2 months), entrenched conflict dynamics make an official mutual ceasefire unlikely; market already heavily favors No (88%), orderbook skew and recent weekly decline in Yes price indicate low odds despite a small short-term uptick.
