1/25/2026, 06:05:40 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
13¢
Orderbook imbalance and heavy bid depth imply buying pressure and potential short-to-medium term upside versus the 0.13 price; edge is small so position sizing should be conservative.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained increase in bidDepthTopN for 'Yes' (current bidDepthTopN >> askDepthTopN) · price breaks and holds above 0.14 on elevated volume · credible reports of renewed diplomatic talks or mediator involvement
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +5% Confidence 40%
Strong bid-side depth (imbalance 0.785) and high liquidity with a tight spread indicate buy-side support; price has stabilized at 0.13 after a recent dip and volatility is low, suggesting the market may be slightly underpricing a non-negligible chance of an official ceasefire.
1/25/2026, 00:05:53 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
14¢
Small positive edge and strong buy-side depth support a near-term lift from 0.14; edge is modest so position size should be small.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers large buy-side depth (imbalance >0.7) persists · price breaks above 0.17 on increased volume · news of resumed high-level diplomatic talks or bilateral ceasefire negotiations
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +3% Confidence 40%
Market price 0.14 appears slightly underweight relative to visible orderbook support: large bid depth for Yes (bidDepthTopN 259,930 vs askDepthTopN 52,914, imbalance 0.83), recent short-term stabilization/uptick and low volatility suggest modest upside over near term, but geopolitical fundamentals keep probability low overall.
1/24/2026, 18:06:20 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
14¢
Strong bid-side depth and market liquidity support a small positive edge at current price; downside risk remains from conflict dynamics, so take a modest position.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Public resumption of high-level Russia–Ukraine negotiations · Joint statements from major mediators (EU/Turkey/UN) indicating imminent agreement · Major battlefield stalemate or mutual incentives to pause combat
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +8% Confidence 40%
Orderbook shows heavy bid-side depth (imbalance ~0.87) and large liquidity suggesting buying support around 0.14; recent price dip appears sharper than fundamentals warrant given ongoing negotiation incentives, so model probability modestly > market price.
1/24/2026, 12:05:43 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
16¢
No clear edge to justify trading the current price given deep liquidity, ask-side dominance, and short-term downward momentum; wait for a clear catalyst or orderflow imbalance.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official, mutually agreed ceasefire announcement from both Russia and Ukraine · Major third-party mediation or agreement reported by multiple credible sources · Sustained, volume-backed rally in 'Yes' price (e.g., >+0.05 with growing bid depth)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge 0% Confidence 35%
Large, deep liquidity and orderbook imbalance favor 'No'; recent hourly/6h/day downward drift in Yes price and no visible new catalysts — no detectable informational edge vs. market price.
1/24/2026, 00:02:06 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
16¢
Small positive edge with supportive orderbook momentum and recent price lift; trade is speculative but priced cheaply relative to modeled tail chance.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Announcement of formal multilateral talks or mediation · Public statements from Russian or Ukrainian leadership signaling willingness to negotiate · Clear evidence of sustained battlefield stalemate or heavy losses prompting ceasefire talks
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +3% Confidence 35%
Market at 16% likely underprices incremental chance of a ceasefire (~19% model estimate) given recent upward trend (0.115→0.165 week), significant bid depth/imbalance for Yes, and active volume—though geopolitical uncertainty keeps overall probability low.
