1/25/2026, 06:07:37 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
41¢
No clear model edge and deep orderbook/liquidity — prefer waiting for decisive news or a price dislocation before trading.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official joint negotiation announcement or signed preliminary agreement · Major, verifiable diplomatic breakthrough reported by multiple credible sources · Significant, sustained change in battlefield control favoring either side
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 35%
High liquidity, heavy recent volume, and stable prices suggest the market price (0.41) is already incorporating available information; geopolitical outcomes are highly uncertain and no clear mispricing is detected.
1/25/2026, 00:07:39 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
40¢
Small positive edge driven by heavy bid-side liquidity and low volatility; not a strong signal so use a medium horizon and size accordingly.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official/credible reporting of resumed ceasefire negotiations · High-level diplomatic talks announced between Russia and Ukraine · Orderbook imbalance flips (bid depth falls below ask depth) or large fills on the ask side
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +5% Confidence 45%
Orderbook shows strong bid depth/imbalance for Yes (hidden demand) despite a modest recent price drift down; low volatility and high volume make a small positive edge plausible versus the market price of 0.40.
1/24/2026, 18:08:13 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
44¢
Modest positive edge with clear buying pressure and tight spread; market depth supports execution. Not a large edge—manage size and monitor news.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained price move above 0.46 (confirmation of momentum) · large buy orders executed increasing bid depth · official negotiation/ceasefire talks announced
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +8% Confidence 55%
Bid-heavy orderbook imbalance (bidDepthTopN > askDepthTopN), recent week-long upward trend in Yes price, low volatility and deep liquidity imply marginally higher true probability than the 44% market price; geopolitical uncertainty limits the edge.
1/24/2026, 12:08:25 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
43¢
No clear edge vs. market price: tight spread, large depth, low volatility — trade only on news or clear orderflow-driven move.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official, mutually agreed ceasefire announcement from both Russia and Ukraine · Major negotiated framework or mediator announcement indicating a credible path to agreement · Sustained price move >5% accompanied by commensurate volume
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 35%
Price (0.43) is stable with tight spread, very high liquidity and heavy volume; orderbook tilt slightly favors Yes but market appears efficient and there is no external information here to justify a divergence from price.
1/24/2026, 00:07:37 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
44¢
Market (0.44) appears modestly overpricing 'Yes' relative to model view; deep liquidity allows execution but conviction is moderate given geopolitical uncertainty.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official bilateral ceasefire announcement by Russia and Ukraine · Major multilateral diplomatic breakthrough (high-profile mediator announcement) · Clear, sustained military de-escalation orders or troop withdrawals
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -9% Confidence 35%
Model estimates ~35% chance vs market 44%. Geopolitical fundamentals and low progress toward a negotiated settlement in the remaining ~11 months outweigh short-term buy-side depth and slight weekly uptick; high uncertainty keeps edge modest.
