Yes ↓ -3% 6/11/2026, 00:02:30
Current price already reflects strong expected support; no clear edge versus market, so avoid chasing at 0.86.
Unified market view
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 62%
Current price 86¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current price already reflects strong expected support; no clear edge versus market, so avoid chasing at 0.86.
Watch triggers
- Flat 1h/6h price action
- Narrow spread but no momentum
- High implied probability already priced
Why not now
Current price already reflects strong expected support; no clear edge versus market, so avoid chasing at 0.86.
Revisit when
Flat 1h/6h price action · Narrow spread but no momentum · High implied probability already priced
Execution guard
Price 86¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $130,635. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:15:09
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
87¢Volume (24h) ?
$33,632Liquidity ?
$103,375Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
3.6%Momentum ?
-1.1%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
86¢ 16,163.42
85¢ 18,220.52
84¢ 25,114.15
83¢ 11,055.88
82¢ 50
Asks
87¢ 4,614.27
88¢ 4,413.32
89¢ 24,549.68
90¢ 26,936.78
91¢ 5,156.14
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/13/2026, 12:54:03 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:56:04 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:58:04 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:00:05 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:02:05 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:04:04 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:06:03 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:08:04 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:10:04 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:12:04 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:14:05 86.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:15:05 86.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 6/9/2026, 06:02:23
The market appears slightly overbought relative to my estimate; there is no strong catalyst to justify paying 0.85 now.
Yes ↑ +1% 6/8/2026, 06:02:29
No strong mispricing: the market has stabilized around 0.835 with tight spread and limited short-term movement. Buy interest exists, but the current price already reflects most of the recent rally.
Yes → 0% 6/7/2026, 00:01:45
The contract is tightly priced with minimal short-term drift and no strong orderbook or history signal to justify entering at current levels.
Yes ↓ -3% 6/4/2026, 18:01:53
No clear edge at 0.83: momentum is positive, but the market already prices a strong win probability and current orderbook shows only mild imbalance.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · Yes 6/13/2026, 11:27:30
$18,205 86.25¢