6/13/2026, 12:02:31 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
13¢
The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus the trend and orderbook, with strong liquidity but no bullish momentum.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.13 vs weak trend · Weekly price down 5 pts · Orderbook slightly favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
72%
Price implies ~13% while recent drift is flat-to-down and the weekly trend moved from 17.5% to 12.5%. No catalyst suggests Ivan Cepeda Castro is meaningfully more likely than the market.
6/11/2026, 12:02:34 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
14¢
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus my estimate, with momentum softening and the book showing sell-side pressure.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.14 vs implied fair value slightly lower · Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes · 1d and 1w price trend down
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
62%
Current price implies about 14%; recent drift is down on 1d/1w, and orderbook leans against Yes with more ask depth than bid depth.
6/8/2026, 18:02:24 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
16¢
Slight bearish edge versus the current ask, with stable but weak momentum and no bullish catalyst in the order flow.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down 3 pts · 1h/6h flat · tight 1¢ spread
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
63%
Price implies ~16-17%; recent 1-week drift is down from 19.5% to 16.5% with flat short-term momentum. Limited evidence of a rebound, so fair value is slightly below market.
6/5/2026, 18:02:41 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
19¢
Price has stabilized near 0.185-0.19, but orderbook and trend do not provide a clean edge either way.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask 0.19 · Ask depth exceeds bid depth · 1-week price down 0.18
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
73%
Yes is priced at 0.19 with strong ask-side depth and a flat recent tape; the 1-week trend remains sharply down despite a small 1-day bounce. I see no catalyst to justify paying above current price.
6/1/2026, 18:01:43 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
20¢
Mild bearish lean on Yes at 0.20 given recent downward repricing and limited evidence of near-term upside.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price down 13 pts · 1w trend still down · No fresh bullish catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
71%
Price at 0.20 looks a bit rich versus the current trend: sharp 1d/1w selloff, weak short-term momentum, and no catalyst shown to justify reversal. Orderbook is balanced but not strongly supportive enough to create a positive edge.
