Unified market view

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -3%

Confidence 72%

Current price 13¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus the trend and orderbook, with strong liquidity but no bullish momentum.

Watch triggers

Yes at 0.13 vs weak trend
Weekly price down 5 pts
Orderbook slightly favors No

Why not now

The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus the trend and orderbook, with strong liquidity but no bullish momentum.

Revisit when

Yes at 0.13 vs weak trend · Weekly price down 5 pts · Orderbook slightly favors No

Execution guard

Price 13¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $136,674. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:00:41

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

13¢

Volume (24h) ?

$53,676

Liquidity ?

$138,614

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-2.8%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.8%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

12¢ 4,838.56

11¢ 3,943

10¢ 34,032.55

9¢ 25,947.06

8¢ 1,616.72

Asks

13¢ 366.13

14¢ 8,650.47

15¢ 38,565.4

16¢ 21,233.39

17¢ 5,604

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/13/2026, 12:38:05 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:40:04 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:42:04 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:44:05 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:46:17 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:48:09 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:50:07 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:52:04 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:54:04 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:56:04 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:58:04 12.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:59:05 12.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -3% 6/13/2026, 12:02:31

The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus the trend and orderbook, with strong liquidity but no bullish momentum.

Yes ↓ -2% 6/11/2026, 12:02:34

Yes looks slightly overpriced versus my estimate, with momentum softening and the book showing sell-side pressure.

Yes ↓ -1% 6/8/2026, 18:02:24

Slight bearish edge versus the current ask, with stable but weak momentum and no bullish catalyst in the order flow.

Yes ↓ -2% 6/5/2026, 18:02:41

Price has stabilized near 0.185-0.19, but orderbook and trend do not provide a clean edge either way.

Yes ↓ -2% 6/1/2026, 18:01:43

Mild bearish lean on Yes at 0.20 given recent downward repricing and limited evidence of near-term upside.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.