1/25/2026, 06:02:11 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
29¢
Model estimates lower probability than market price and recent week-long downtrend indicates decreased odds; time to expiry is long so selling to avoid prolonged carry risk.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible major news report naming Kevin Warsh as Trump’s formal nominee · Official White House or administration statement explicitly endorsing Warsh · Nomination message submitted to the U.S. Senate (resolves market)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -12% Confidence 45%
Price has collapsed from ~0.535 to ~0.295 over the week, signaling market consensus moved against this outcome; limited fundamental signal for Warsh nomination and significant remaining uncertainty → I estimate lower true probability than the market (model ~17% vs market 29%).
1/25/2026, 00:01:34 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
28¢
No clear edge relative to market price; wait for concrete news or a decisive price move.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official nomination submitted to the U.S. Senate naming Kevin Warsh · Major credible media reports naming Warsh as the likely nominee · Price breakout: >0.40 on high volume (buy) or <0.20 on high volume (sell)
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 35%
Large liquidity and heavy recent volume plus clear downward price trend suggest the market is efficiently incorporating information; no clear informational edge to the model.
1/24/2026, 18:01:25 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
27¢
Small positive edge driven by orderbook imbalance and recent price bounce; prefer a short-term/speculative buy with limited size due to weak longer-term trend and asymmetric ask liquidity.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official reporting or nomination mention linking Kevin Warsh to Fed chair shortlist · Sustained price move above 0.30 or sustained increase in bestAsk depth for 'Yes' · Large removal or reduction of bid-depth on the 'Yes' side (would flip signal)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +5% Confidence 35%
Orderbook shows strong bid-side depth and high bid/ask imbalance (0.89) plus a short-term uptick (1h). Countervailing multi-day downtrend and thin ask depth limit conviction, yielding a small positive edge (~+5pp).
1/24/2026, 12:03:20 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
29¢
Strong recent downtrend, high volume and tight spread favor executing a sell; expect further downside absent fresh positive news for Warsh.
Triggers Credible reporting that Warsh is the White House frontrunner · Announcement of a White House meeting or endorsement involving Warsh · Formal nomination message to the Senate (would invert view)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -11% Confidence 65%
Price has plunged from ~0.45→0.29 over days with high volume and negative momentum; market likely reacting to adverse info/odds shifts. Political likelihood and lack of public signals for a Warsh nomination suggest true probability < market's 29%.
1/24/2026, 06:04:29 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
27¢
Strong negative momentum and ask-side depth suggest further downside risk at current price; short-term sell to capture the negative edge.
Triggers credible reporting linking Trump to Warsh or formal nomination message submitted · price reclaiming and holding >0.35 on volume · orderbook imbalance flips (Yes bidDepthTopN > askDepthTopN) with sustained buys
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -10% Confidence 70%
Sustained, large decline (0.585→0.28 week), recent accelerated selling, and orderbook imbalance favoring No indicate market has increasing information / momentum against a Warsh nomination; probability likely below current 27%.
