1/25/2026, 06:05:59 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
5¢
Small positive edge + strong bid-side depth justify a modest buy for short-term upside; low absolute probability and lack of clear news keep position size small.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Formal nomination submitted to the U.S. Senate for Kevin Hassett · Major credible report naming Hassett as Trump's frontrunner for Fed chair · White House or Trump administration confirmation of intent to nominate Hassett
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +4% Confidence 30%
Market at 5% appears slightly underpricing the chance relative to a model-implied ~9%: recent 1d uptick (4.5%→5.5%), persistent bid-side depth imbalance (bidDepthTopN >> askDepthTopN), and high liquidity suggest modest buying pressure. No major fundamentals/news support a larger move, so edge is small.
1/25/2026, 00:02:39 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
5¢
Small positive edge with deep liquidity and bid-side pressure; trade size tolerable but outcome remains low-probability and news-driven.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible news linking Hassett as finalist or on Trump’s shortlist · Major outlet reporting a forthcoming formal nomination · Official White House statement or Senate nomination filing
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +2% Confidence 30%
Market price = 5%. Orderbook shows ~2x bid depth vs asks and positive bid imbalance, plus a small recent uptick from 4.5%→5.5% after a weeklong decline — suggests slight buy pressure and modest undervaluation vs baseline prior probability for a named nomination.
1/24/2026, 18:02:29 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
5¢
Market appears mildly overpriced relative to my estimate; downtrend and orderbook imbalance favor exiting/shorting Yes at current price.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting that Trump intends to nominate Kevin Hassett · Formal nomination message submitted to the Senate · Sustained price recovery above $0.10 with significant buy depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 60%
Estimated model probability ~3% vs market 5%: nomination of Kevin Hassett appears low-probability. Price shows sustained week-long decline (0.165→0.045), momentum bearish, and orderbook imbalance consistent with selling pressure.
1/24/2026, 12:02:03 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
5¢
Small positive edge plus strong bid-side liquidity support a speculative buy to expiry; low conviction given large recent price decline and event unpredictability.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting that Trump is considering or meets with Kevin Hassett · Endorsement from close Trump advisers or key economic advisors · Formal nomination submission to the U.S. Senate (resolves market)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +3% Confidence 35%
Market-implied 5% vs model ~8%: recent bid-heavy orderbook (high bid depth, imbalance ~0.72) and a short-term uptick suggest modest underpricing despite a week-long decline; uncertainty keeps edge small.
1/24/2026, 06:03:40 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
5¢
No clear positive or negative edge vs market price; high liquidity enables trading but insufficient signal to buy or sell.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Formal nomination submitted to the U.S. Senate naming Kevin Hassett · Credible major-media reporting of an imminent Hassett nomination · Sustained price move above 0.10 on meaningful volume
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
Market price (~5%) and available evidence give no clear information advantage; strong downtrend historically but no new catalysts — model aligns with market.
