1/25/2026, 06:03:21 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
9¢
Positive estimated edge (~+6%) combined with very tight spread and deep buy-side liquidity makes small buy positions attractive; uncertainty about nominations limits conviction.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained bidDepthTopN > 1000 (continued buy pressure) · price rises above 0.095 on higher volume · credible news reports of Trump intent to nominate a Fed governor
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 35%
Significant buy-side liquidity and imbalance (bidDepthTopN 1369 vs ask 137) plus recent intraday/1d upticks (6h +10.9%, 1d +18%) suggest market may be underpricing a non-negligible chance of a nomination, though political uncertainty keeps probability low.
1/25/2026, 00:02:59 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
8.3¢
Tight spread and good liquidity allow trading, but absent new information about Trump’s presidency or a clear signal he intends to pick Waller, no clear edge to trade now.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Trump becomes President (or frontrunner polls shift sharply) · Credible media report Trump plans to nominate Christopher Waller · Waller publicly states willingness to accept nomination
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
Market already prices a low probability (8.3%); no clear informational advantage from orderbook or recent price moves to justify a different model probability.
1/24/2026, 18:02:53 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
5.4¢
Negative edge vs. market and clear downward trend with ample liquidity to exit; prefer selling rather than holding into uncertain political developments.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting that Trump will nominate Christopher Waller · Official White House nomination submission to the U.S. Senate · Sustained market price rebound above ~0.10 on heavy volume
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 62%
Price has trended sharply down (≈0.1535 → 0.054 over the week) and current market-implied probability (5.4%) already reflects low plausibility; political likelihood of Trump formally nominating Waller appears lower than the market implies.
1/24/2026, 12:04:57 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
6.6¢
Momentum and liquidity data point to continued downside from current price; better to reduce long exposure near present levels absent new supportive information.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible news reporting that Trump intends to nominate Christopher Waller · Official nomination message submitted to the U.S. Senate · Sustained price recovery above 0.09 on strong buy-side volume
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -4% Confidence 60%
Strong, persistent downward trend (≈0.12→0.066 in 24h; -45% day, -53% week) with heavy volume and sell pressure; no clear public signals supporting a Waller nomination to justify a higher probability.
1/24/2026, 06:05:44 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
7.5¢
Model estimates modestly higher probability than market; orderbook shows heavy bid interest and shallow asks so buying likely to capture upside if nomination momentum appears. Political uncertainty...
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Reliable reporting of Trump private discussions with or praise for Waller · White House leaks or shortlist including Waller · Senate Republican leaders signal willingness to confirm Waller
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +4% Confidence 45%
Current price (7.5%) looks low given Waller's viability as a Trump nominee and strong buy-side liquidity (large bid depth/imbalance). Political uncertainty limits conviction, but buys suggest upside vs. market-implied probability.
