1/25/2026, 06:01:26 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
51.4¢
Small bullish edge with healthy liquidity and bid-side imbalance; trade for short-term momentum rather than long-term certainty given political uncertainty.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained topBid >= 0.52 with increased bidDepthTopN · price breaks and holds above 0.55 · major credible reporting linking Trump to Rieder
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +5% Confidence 45%
Orderbook shows stronger bid depth and positive short/6h momentum; recent 1d pullback tempers conviction.
1/25/2026, 00:01:14 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
49.4¢
Short-term momentum and fundamentals point below current price (model ~30% vs market 49%); sell to capture expected reversion unless new evidence appears.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price rises above 0.55 (re-evaluate bullish case) · Sustained increase in Yes ask-side depth relative to bid-side for 24+ hours · Credible mainstream reports linking Rick Rieder to Trump's shortlist or official White House leak
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -19% Confidence 35%
Model probability ~30% vs market 49.4%: Rieder lacks clear frontrunner status; recent short-term price drop (6h -18%) and No-side buying pressure indicate market overstates chance despite high liquidity.
1/24/2026, 18:01:06 gpt-5-mini
Signal Buy Horizon
Medium-term Current price
59.9¢
Momentum and orderbook skew support further upside vs current price (0.599), but recent rapid move limits conviction.
Triggers sustained bidDepthTopN > askDepthTopN and imbalance > 0.6 · price holds above 0.615 on rising volume · credible reporting of Trump intent or Rieder consideration
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +8% Confidence 60%
Strong upward momentum (week: +0.513), heavy volume and liquidity, and orderbook imbalance favoring Yes (bidDepthTopN > askDepthTopN, imbalance≈0.71) suggest market underprices the probability of a nomination.
1/24/2026, 12:01:43 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
52.9¢
No clear value edge vs market price; tight spread and significant liquidity make arbitrage limited—wait for confirmed nomination reporting or sustained momentum.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official Senate nomination submitted naming Rick Rieder · Major credible media report that Rieder is Trump’s likely nominee · Sustained price move >5% accompanied by persistent bid/ask depth imbalance
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 30%
Price already re-rated sharply (≈8% → 53% over week); narrow spread and large liquidity but orderbook balanced and no clear fundamental signal or confirmed reporting to justify a model/market divergence.
1/24/2026, 06:02:12 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
55.4¢
Momentum and recent volume support further upside, but orderbook imbalance and heavy ask liquidity make the move fragile—prefer short-term trade.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained price move above 0.60 on elevated volume · TopBid rises >0.57 with bidDepthTopN increasing · Credible reporting of a formal nomination or clear administration signal
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 45%
Price surged from ~0.07 to 0.554 with strong volume and positive short/medium slopes, suggesting new information increasing likelihood. Large ask depth and mixed orderbook imbalance limit conviction.
