1/25/2026, 06:07:55 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
30¢
Current price (0.30) is stable with deep orderbook and balanced exposures; absent a clear catalyst or informational advantage, neither buy nor sell is attractive.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Supreme Court grants or denies certiorari in the case · Court schedules oral arguments or issues a major briefing schedule update · Authoritative reporting of settlement, dismissal, or mootness
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 60%
No clear informational edge: price stable around $0.30, narrow spread, deep liquidity, and no imminent court resolution or new legal catalyst—market appears to reflect public information.
1/25/2026, 00:08:02 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
30¢
No actionable mispricing or new signals in the provided data; prefer to wait for material case developments before taking a position.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Supreme Court grants/denies certiorari or schedules oral argument · Major briefs (government, respondents, or amici) filed or highlighted by reporting · Credible reporting on likely vote alignment or internal conference outcomes
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
No detectable informational edge: price stable at $0.30 with high liquidity and low volatility, orderbook roughly balanced and no recent news items in the data to move the probability. Legal outcome remains highly uncertain, so model does not claim an edge.
1/24/2026, 18:08:31 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
30¢
No actionable edge and high liquidity; prefer to wait for new credible information or a clear price dislocation before trading.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of Supreme Court grant/denial of certiorari or merits schedule · Major briefing/oral-argument update affecting merits timeline · Large sustained orderbook imbalance (>0.6) or topN depth shift >$50k
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
No clear informational edge: market is deep and liquid, spread is tight, short- and medium-term price trends show slight deterioration for Yes, and the legal outcome is inherently uncertain. Orderbook imbalance is nearly flat, so model defers to market price.
1/24/2026, 12:08:54 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
30¢
Small positive edge from orderbook imbalance and price support; tight spread and deep liquidity make a short-horizon entry feasible to capture ~5 percentage-point mispricing.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Bid-side depth increases or imbalance rises above ~0.60 (strengthen buy case) · Sudden rise in ask-side depth or large sell orders pushing price below ~0.28 (re-evaluate / consider sell) · Credible reporting of Supreme Court action (certiorari denial, dismissal, or a grant with negative/positive signals) — adjust immediately
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +5% Confidence 45%
Top-of-book imbalance favors buys (bidDepthTopN 20k > askDepthTopN 14.5k, imbalance ~0.58), low short-term volatility and tight spread (0.02) with high liquidity suggest current price (0.30) is slightly undervaluing the probability of a pro-government Supreme Court outcome.
1/24/2026, 00:08:00 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
Modest negative edge with short-term downward slope and orderbook tilt toward No; liquidity is sufficient to exit without large impact.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Supreme Court certiorari decision (grant or deny) · Scheduling of oral argument or briefing orders · Major credible reporting or leaks about likely merits outcome
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 35%
Small, persistent downward drift and slightly stronger depth on the No side; low volatility implies market already prices most info, so a modest downside relative to the 0.30 market price.
