1/25/2026, 06:08:13 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
5¢
Small positive edge and heavy bid-side depth support a modest buy; uncertainty around geopolitical catalysts keeps conviction low.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Large-scale US troop deployments to Venezuela border or region · Official US statements indicating intent or contingency planning for kinetic operations · Major deterioration of US–Venezuela diplomatic relations or collapse of negotiations
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +1% Confidence 30%
Baseline probability of a US invasion is low, but market price (5%) sits slightly below its 1-week mean (~5.74%) and orderbook shows strong bid depth for Yes, indicating mild buy pressure and a small undervaluation.
1/25/2026, 00:08:21 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
5¢
Model ~3% vs market 5% (edge -0.02). No substantive near-term indicators of imminent invasion; downside of holding limited relative to small edge.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Major U.S. troop or carrier strike-group deployment aimed at Venezuela · Credible leaked or public intelligence indicating imminent offensive plans · Direct attacks on U.S. personnel/assets tied to Venezuela escalating to military response
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 60%
Low baseline probability that the U.S. will commence a territorial invasion of Venezuela within the window; market at 5% likely slightly overstating tail risk. Price has trended down and shows very low volatility; no visible catalysts.
1/24/2026, 18:08:48 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
5¢
Market appears slightly overstating invasion risk (5%) relative to model (~2%); sell to capture small negative edge given high liquidity and stable price.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reports of US troop deployments to Venezuela or nearby staging areas · Public US administration statements indicating intent to use force · Major collapse or rapid loss of control by Venezuelan government forces
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 60%
Model assigns ~2% probability vs market 5%: low historical likelihood of a US invasion, no visible escalation indicators, and stable low price despite high liquidity.
1/24/2026, 12:09:22 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
5¢
No detectable informational edge vs market; price stable with deep books. Prefer waiting for substantive geopolitical triggers before trading.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Public announcement of US mobilization or authorization for offensive operations targeting Venezuela · Credible reports of US forces conducting offensive operations inside Venezuelan territory · Major escalation between US-backed actors and Venezuelan forces or a rapid collapse of Venezuelan control in contested areas
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
Market price (5%) is low, stable, and backed by sizable liquidity; available history shows no informative moves or volatility. No clear open-source signals justify adjusting probability away from market-implied 5%.
1/24/2026, 00:08:20 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
5¢
No clear informational edge vs market price and adequate liquidity — prefer waiting for substantive geopolitical triggers or price dislocation.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Verified reports of US troop incursions onto Venezuelan territory · Official US authorization or public declaration of offensive operations · Clear, large-scale US military mobilization (ships, carriers, ground forces) near Venezuela
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
Market price (5%) matches my baseline assessment of low probability; recent slight downtrend but no new signals; orderbook/liquidity are healthy so no arbitrage opportunity detected.
