2/5/2026, 00:08:37 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
2.8¢
Market is liquid, spread is small, and price is stable; no clear informational edge to justify buying or selling at current price.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Verified reports of US troop deployments to Venezuela or neighboring territories · Official US authorization or public statements indicating imminent offensive operations · Credible intelligence leaks or major escalation between US and Venezuelan forces
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
No new information or volatility to justify a deviation from the market-implied probability (~2.8%). Price has been stable with tight spread and substantial liquidity; recent week-long decline appears to have stabilized. Unable to detect a reliable informational edge.
2/4/2026, 18:09:24 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
2.6¢
Model probability below market price and good liquidity/spread make selling favorable; limited new information expected absent major geopolitical escalations.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Large-scale US troop deployments to Caribbean/region announced · Formal US authorization or clear political decision to launch an offensive · Major collapse or widespread armed uprising in Venezuela creating a pretext
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 60%
I estimate ~1% probability (model) vs market 2.6%. Low historical likelihood of a US invasion, no obvious near-term triggers, and the market has trended down over the week; orderbook shows heavier No-side liquidity, suggesting current price overstates tail risk.
2/4/2026, 12:07:18 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
2.4¢
Small negative edge vs current price (model < market). Low volatility and orderbook suggests limited upside; sell to capture slight overpricing.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers US troop deployments or mobilization near Venezuela · Formal congressional or presidential authorization for offensive action · Credible reporting of imminent offensive operations or staging
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -1% Confidence 40%
Market already prices a very low chance (~2.4%). Historical/political analysis suggests an even smaller probability by expiry (model ~1.5%); low volatility and no credible indicators of imminent military action imply the market is slightly overpricing this outcome.
2/4/2026, 06:07:50 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
2.7¢
Market appears slightly overpriced relative to model; narrow spread and deep liquidity make selling feasible. Edge is small but negative, so sell to expiry to capture the expected overpricing.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers US announces deployment of significant combat forces to Venezuela or immediate neighboring territory · Official US government authorization or public statement indicating intention to commence offensive · Rapid collapse or fragmentation of Venezuelan government control over territory
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 60%
Model estimates ~1% chance vs market 2.7% (edge -1.7pp). Direct US invasion is geopolitically costly and unlikely; price has trended down over the week. Large bid-depth likely reflects liquidity/market-making rather than a fundamental increase in invasion probability.
2/4/2026, 00:07:50 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
2.3¢
Model probability (~1%) below market (~2.3%) — small negative edge and sufficient liquidity to exit. No near-term triggers justify holding or buying.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Clear signs of US force mobilization toward Venezuela or Caribbean staging · Formal US congressional/administration authorization or public planning documents for offensive operations · Major military clash between US and Venezuelan forces or allied proxy escalation
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -1% Confidence 60%
Geopolitical baseline probability of a US invasion by Mar 31, 2026 is very low (~1%). Market prices Yes at ~2.3%, slightly above my model estimate. No current indicators (mobilization, authorizing legislation, major escalation) support a higher probability; recent price decline and shallow ask liquidity likely reflect sell pressure but not a signal of increased invasion risk.
