2/5/2026, 00:09:07 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
31¢
Negative edge vs market price (model << market). Trade to expiry favored given long time horizon and need for major disruptive events for resolution.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained, nationwide mass defections of IRGC or security forces · Supreme Leader incapacitated/removed with no functioning continuity preserving the Islamic Republic · Military coup that dismantles clerical control and core institutions
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -19% Confidence 45%
My estimate ~12% probability vs market 31% (edge -0.19). Despite protests, core regime institutions (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC) remain resilient, repression capacity and elite cohesion make full collapse before end-2026 unlikely without major shocks. Orderbook liquidity is strong but imbalance shows buyer interest; that doesn't justify the higher implied probability given structural resilience.
2/4/2026, 18:09:48 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
Market appears to overstate the probability of regime collapse; sell into current price unless strong confirmatory triggers emerge.
Triggers Public, sustained defections/split among IRGC or top clerical leadership · Organized armed opposition seizes and administers major cities for an extended period · National-level provisional government or revolutionary council forms and gains broad domestic recognition
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -12% Confidence 60%
I estimate probability ~18% vs market 30% (edge −12%). Regime collapse by end-2026 remains unlikely given institutional resilience, low short-term volatility, and recent downward price trend; market appears to overprice tail scenarios absent clear elite fractures or sustained armed control of population centers.
2/4/2026, 12:07:39 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
30¢
No clear mispricing and strong liquidity; recommend waiting for informative news or a decisive price move.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Confirmed major defections from IRGC or senior clerical leadership · Widespread, sustained nationwide uprising with international reporting consensus · Sustained price move >0.05 (5 points) with accompanying volume spike
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
No clear informational edge: price stable at 0.30 with high liquidity and tight spread; orderbook shows bid-side depth but weekly trend declined from ~0.36 to 0.305. Mixed signals and no new shocks -> market appears fairly priced.
2/4/2026, 06:08:08 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
Market price (0.30) > model fair value (~0.15); sufficient liquidity to execute. Political shocks could change odds, so medium horizon recommended.
Triggers Buy-trigger: credible mass defections among IRGC or senior clerical/elite ranks · Buy-trigger: loss of central control of Tehran or majority-population governance by non-IR regime actors · Buy-trigger: announcement of provisional government, new constitution, or clear transfer of sovereignty
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -15% Confidence 60%
Model assesses ~15% chance regime falls by end-2026 vs market 30%. Iranian regime institutions (Supreme Leader, IRGC, Guardian Council) have shown resilience; recent price drift toward 'No' and high liquidity suggest current price overstates near-term collapse risk.
2/4/2026, 00:08:12 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
30¢
Market appears slightly overpricing 'Yes' relative to my estimate; recent downtrend and low vol support a short-term sell recommendation.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reports of Supreme Leader removal or abdication · Evidence of IRGC collapse or mass defections from core institutions · Announcement/formation of a provisional government or new constitution
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 50%
Model estimates ~22% chance vs market 30% (edge −0.08). Price has fallen from 0.355→0.30 over the week, low volatility, and fundamentals make full-regime collapse within <11 months unlikely. Orderbook shows buy-side depth support but not enough to offset downward trend.
