1/25/2026, 06:08:31 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
37¢
Slight undervaluation vs model (≈44% vs market 37%), supported by bid-side depth and recent upward momentum; narrow spread and high liquidity limit conviction.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained bid depth > ask depth (current imbalance persists) · Price breaks and holds above 0.40 · Major credible reporting of regime destabilization or elite fracturing
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +7% Confidence 45%
Orderbook shows sustained bid depth imbalance toward Yes and a one-week upward price trend; fundamentals still uncertain so edge is small.
1/25/2026, 00:08:37 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
39¢
Tight spread, deep orderbook and no new signals produce no reliable trading edge; prefer to wait for informative developments or price dislocation.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of Supreme Leader removal or clear replacement institution · Major IRGC fracture or leadership split reported by multiple reliable sources · Widespread sustained armed control of population centers and collapse of central administration
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 60%
Price ~39% is stable with high liquidity and minimal recent movement; no clear informational advantage to move model probability away from market price.
1/24/2026, 18:09:12 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
37¢
Modest buy signal: orderbook and short-term momentum favor Yes but signal is small and noisy; trade size should be limited relative to depth.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained price rise above 0.42 (breaking recent resistance) · bidDepthTopN for Yes increases above 15k (greater buy-side pressure) · credible reporting of major leadership fractures or IRGC splits
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 42%
Small positive edge from persistent buy-side orderbook imbalance (Yes bidDepthTopN > askDepthTopN), recent 1d price uptick, tight spread and high liquidity suggest market slightly underpricing the probability of regime collapse before end-2026.
1/24/2026, 12:09:43 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
40¢
High liquidity, tight spread, and only modest recent price movement create no clear trade opportunity; better to wait for a decisive shift or news.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained price move >0.08 (e.g., to >0.48) on high volume · Sustained price move <-0.08 (e.g., to <0.32) on high volume · Orderbook imbalance (topN) exceeds 0.60 favoring bids or asks
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 30%
Market is deep and tight-spread with small, recent upward drift but balanced orderbook; no clear informational edge from on-chain microstructure or recent moves to justify a subjective probability different from the market price.
1/24/2026, 00:08:42 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
37¢
Market price (0.37) overstates my assessed probability; tight spread and high liquidity make selling feasible to capture this negative edge.
Triggers Buy trigger: Credible reports that the Supreme Leader has been removed, incapacitated, or publicly replaced and a clear transitional authority announced · Buy trigger: Large-scale defections of senior IRGC commanders and top clerical figures leading to loss of regime control over major population centers · Buy trigger: Opposition forces or an interim government exercising de facto governance over a majority of Iran's population
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -13% Confidence 60%
I estimate ~24% chance vs market 37%: core institutions (Supreme Leader, IRGC, Guardian Council) show resilience, no clear evidence of decisive elite collapse or sustained control by an alternative authority across a majority of the population; recent price rise appears driven by event risk and volatility rather than terminal-regime signals.
