5/27/2026, 00:03:09 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
72¢
Spread is tight and liquidity is strong, but current price looks near-fair with no clear catalyst or mispricing large enough to trade confidently.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best bid/ask 0.71/0.72 · 7d price down 2pts · High liquidity, low spread
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
58%
Price already embeds substantial removal risk at 0.72. Recent drift is slightly down, but no event catalyst or momentum suggests enough additional upside; fair value is modestly below market.
5/25/2026, 12:02:58 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
72¢
Current price is near fair value with no clear short-term catalyst or strong orderbook dislocation.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 7d drift already priced · Spread is tight · No new resignation/removal signal
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
63%
Yes trades near 0.72 after a 12pt drop over 7d, but the book is balanced enough and there is no fresh catalyst; price already reflects elevated removal risk.
5/24/2026, 00:02:41 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
71¢
The market is efficiently priced with a narrow spread and no strong new information. Recent drift down supports caution, but edge is too small for a clear buy or sell.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down from 0.87 to 0.715 · 1d drift still downward · tight spread limits exploitable edge
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
Price already reflects substantial removal risk near 0.71. Trend softened over 1d/7d, but with no clear catalyst or fresh confirmation, fair value looks slightly below market.
5/20/2026, 00:02:35 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
73¢
No strong mispricing: the book is tight and the current 0.73 price already reflects meaningful removal risk. Small bullish bias is not enough to buy aggressively.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best bid/ask 0.73/0.74 · 1w price up to 0.735 · Long time until expiry
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
58%
Price is 0.73, but the event remains plausible over a long horizon with political resignation risk and recent upward weekly drift; however, the market already prices substantial risk, so edge is small.
5/18/2026, 00:02:32 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
88¢
Price is near the top of the recent range and liquidity is decent, but the market already reflects substantial risk. No clear mispricing or catalyst is visible.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best bid/ask 0.87/0.88 · 7d move to 0.88 already large · No fresh event catalyst in data
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
58%
Yes is priced at 0.88 with a tight spread and strong recent upward move. The market already embeds a high chance of resignation/removal, leaving limited upside unless fresh political risk emerges.
